KillsRisk
Line
22
Pick
OVER
Projection
23.71
Hit
52.8%
EV+
-8.5%
Edge
+1.7
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
11.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.29
Hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.8%
Edge
+1.8
L10
70%
#72Ranked 72 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
max
9z vs MOUZ
LEAN · OVER 11.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP11.5UD11.5SL11.5
▲ L5 14.8 · L20 13.7
Hit rates at 11.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±6.04
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
No meeting with MOUZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
8.2
2/9 hit at 11.5
Online
18.2
10/11 hit at 11.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm max is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 24.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 12+ HS (~22 kills at 55.4% HS): 0.528 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (59.5%) or blowout (41%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.29
Raw edge
+1.8
Cons. hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.8%
Rating
2.8/10
Exp. rounds
39.3
Line
11.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
56.1%
+8.4 →
Learned
64.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 9.5-13.5
All players · Headshots
59.1%132 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Blowout loss risk — team only 24% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 60% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (12.64) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.4 headshots vs line 11.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 55%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 14.4 against a 11.5 line
Biggest risk: 35% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 35% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.29 vs line 11.5 → +1.79 (15.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 39.3 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.38
HS/Map
6.85
K/D
0.93
KPR
0.65
ADR
73.1
KAST
75.2%
HS%
55.4%
Multi-kill
17.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)6.2 · KPR 0.607 · 18.9r
Map 2 (Mirage)6.4 · KPR 0.586 · 20.4r
Required KPR to clear0.528
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.42
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.60%
Final projected kills22.81
× realistic HS% (55.4%)13.29
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 11.5. Model: 61.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps41%
~11 HS · 33r43.4%
Normal44.8%
~15 HS · 43r66.1%
Close maps8.6%
~14 HS · 43r65.3%
Overtime5.6%
~16 HS · 49r76.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 24.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 24% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Inferno
18.9r
-1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
20.4r
-4% KPR here
Total
39.3r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14.2%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)41%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11.5 (Over) · avg 14.4 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
11.5
Nearby lines
| 9.5 Over | 61.4% | |
| 10.5 Over | 59.1% | |
| 11.5 Over | 56.1% | OFFERED |
| 12.5 Over | 52.5% | below BE |
| 13.5 Over | 48.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11.5
Line movement
first 11.5→11.5no change
- First seen11.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
66.4%
K/D
0.92
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.61
HS%
41.8%
K/D
0.99
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
9.9
KPR
0.5
HS%
44.9%
K/D
0.74
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.63
HS%
59.7%
K/D
0.94
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.79
HS%
53.1%
K/D
1.16
Cache
3 maps
Kills
8.7
KPR
0.39
HS%
50%
K/D
0.57
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.84
HS%
74.2%
K/D
1.48
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Vitality | 6 Mirage 10-13 | 1 Cache 10-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | MEIA NOITE | 6 Inferno 13-2 | 11 Dust2 9-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | Procyon | 15 Ancient 13-9 | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Procyon | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Mirage 13-1 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 5 Cache 11-13 | 2 Inferno 4-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 3 Nuke 9-13 | 2 Mirage 13-8 | 5 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 7 Nuke 13-1 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | Procyon | 12 Anubis 13-2 | 4 Ancient 13-2 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | BORRACHEIROS | 8 Inferno 1-13 | 13 Mirage 14-16 | 21 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-09 | Isurus | 8 Inferno 13-6 | 6 Dust2 13-3 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Procyon | 12 Inferno 13-5 | 4 Nuke 13-9 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Anubis 9-13 | 4 Nuke 5-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 3 Nuke 7-13 | 4 Inferno 3-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 4 Dust2 13-8 | 3 Mirage 13-9 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 7 Cache 6-13 | 13 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Galorys | 5 Inferno 4-13 | 5 Ancient 6-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 4 Nuke 13-10 | 3 Mirage 13-2 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | ex-Keyd Stars | 10 Ancient 13-11 | 10 Dust2 7-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 4 Mirage 11-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-02 | Isurus | 19 Inferno 16-14 | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































