KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.63
Hit
42.8%
EV+
-25.9%
Edge
-0.9
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
7.81
Hit
54.4%
EV+
-5.9%
Edge
-1.7
L10
70%
#252Ranked 252 of 277 on the board

AWPer
AccuracyTG
NEXVOID vs Alter Ego
RISK · UNDER 28.5
BEST UNDER · PP 28.5PP28.5UD28.5SL27.5
▼ L5 23.0 · L20 29.6Risk · Edge -0.9 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.52
Previous meeting · vs Alter Ego
No meeting with Alter Ego in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.1
5/12 hit at 28.5
Online
32
2/8 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm AccuracyTG is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.636 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
27.63
Raw edge
-0.9
Cons. hit
42.8%
EV+
-25.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.8%
-5.1 →
Learned
37.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
46.4%334 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 57% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.61) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.7 kills vs line 28.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 29%. Next: vs Alter Ego, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.7 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.63 vs line 28.5 → -0.87 (-3.1%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.82
HS/Map
4.35
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.65
ADR
62.9
KAST
72.8%
HS%
29.3%
Multi-kill
15.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)15.1 · KPR 0.637 · 23.9r
Map 2 (Inferno)14.5 · KPR 0.698 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.636
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.81
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.68%
Final projected kills29.61
Alter Ego gives up (5 series)-3.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 54.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~23 kills · 38r80.6%
Normal50.8%
~28 kills · 46r54%
Close maps10.3%
~30 kills · 48r46.3%
Overtime12.2%
~33 kills · 54r27.4%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 57% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
23.9r
-2% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.9r
+7% KPR here
Total
44.8r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 27.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 32.4% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 39.6% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 42.8% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 47.9% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 50.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→28.5no change
- First seen28.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
35.5%
K/D
1.23
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.63
HS%
26.5%
K/D
1.03
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.68
HS%
31.3%
K/D
0.98
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
30.2%
K/D
1.06
Cache
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
20.8%
K/D
1.3
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.64
HS%
0%
K/D
0.93
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Rare Atom | 18 Dust2 10-13 | 14 Ancient 11-13 | 32 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Morningstar | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 13 Ancient 13-7 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Chinggis Warriors | 3 Inferno 1-13 | 10 Cache 13-10 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Vitalem Aerem | 9 Dust2 5-13 | 18 Inferno 13-10 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FlyQuest | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 11 Dust2 6-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Off Chops | 30 Dust2 19-17 | 11 Inferno 13-9 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 22 Ancient 16-14 | 9 Dust2 2-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | Rooster | 14 Anubis 13-9 | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 18 Cache 13-7 | 16 Inferno 13-5 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Chinggis Warriors | 15 Nuke 13-9 | 12 Ancient 7-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | 5star | 14 Ancient 13-5 | 16 Inferno 12-16 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-08 | The Huns | 15 Ancient 13-10 | 15 Inferno 13-5 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | Lynn Vision | 17 Ancient 11-13 | 12 Nuke 13-11 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | The Huns | 31 Nuke 22-20 | 10 Ancient 13-11 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Lynn Vision | 13 Ancient 14-16 | 6 Nuke 5-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | Legion | 16 Dust2 13-6 | 15 Inferno 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Swing | 20 Cache 7-13 | 13 Inferno 13-4 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | bLight blue | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 16 Inferno 13-3 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Chinggis Warriors | 22 Nuke 11-13 | 25 Ancient 10-13 | 47 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Lynn Vision | 14 Inferno 8-13 | 13 Dust2 7-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ |








































































































































































