KillsRisk
Line
30
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.07
Hit
52%
EV+
-10.0%
Edge
+1.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.81
Hit
54.5%
EV+
-5.6%
Edge
+0.8
L10
50%
#144Ranked 144 of 277 on the board

Rifler
timo
BESTIA vs paiN
RISK · OVER 30
BEST OVER · UD 29.5PP30UD29.5SL29.5
≈ L5 30.2 · L20 29.8Risk · Edge +1.1 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 30 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.44
Previous meeting · vs paiN
No meeting with paiN in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
31.9
4/11 hit at 30
Online · this match
27.1
3/9 hit at 30
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm timo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.68 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (61%) or blowout (20%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.07
Raw edge
+1.1
Cons. hit
52%
EV+
-10.0%
Rating
3.6/10
Exp. rounds
44.1
Line
30
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52%
+8.6 →
Learned
60.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 28-32
All players · Kills
55.9%270 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 61% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (31.45) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.2 kills vs line 30.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 56%. Next: vs paiN, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 32.2 against a 30.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.07 vs line 30 → +1.07 (3.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.1 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.88
HS/Map
8.35
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.7
ADR
77.5
KAST
71%
HS%
56.1%
Multi-kill
18.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)15.9 · KPR 0.712 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.6 · KPR 0.722 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.68
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.62
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.53%
Final projected kills31.45
paiN gives up (81 series)-3.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30. Model: 55.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~26 kills · 37r23.1%
Normal61.7%
~31 kills · 45r53.1%
Close maps8.3%
~33 kills · 47r63.8%
Overtime10%
~38 kills · 53r82.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
22.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.7r
+3% KPR here
Total
44.1r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Over) · avg 32.2 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Over | 60.6% | |
| 29 Over | 56.8% | below BE |
| 30 Over | 52% | OFFERED |
| 31 Over | 48.8% | below BE |
| 32 Over | 45.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 30→30no change
- First seen30Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.71
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.73
HS%
55.2%
K/D
1.1
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
54.2%
K/D
0.85
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.73
HS%
60.6%
K/D
1.13
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
47.9%
K/D
1
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.53
HS%
70%
K/D
0.69
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 19 Ancient 13-9 | 16 Inferno 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 15 Dust2 7-13 | 13 Cache 13-5 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 20 Ancient 10-13 | 14 Mirage 10-13 | 34 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 16 Mirage 6-13 | 13 Cache 6-13 | 29 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 23 Cache 16-14 | 22 Mirage 19-16 | 45 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 13 Mirage 16-13 | 33 Inferno 22-19 | 46 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 16 Mirage 13-10 | 9 Nuke 2-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 16 Ancient 13-7 | 14 Mirage 13-2 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 14 Ancient 10-13 | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 11 Inferno 13-3 | 18 Mirage 13-2 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 13 Dust2 7-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 9 Cache 7-13 | 4 Ancient 4-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Imperial | 11 Nuke 10-13 | 19 Inferno 13-9 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | ALKA | 14 Cache 8-13 | 26 Dust2 13-8 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-09 | Isurus | 11 Cache 7-13 | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Yawara | 16 Mirage 8-13 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-05 | Grêmio | 7 Inferno 13-6 | 18 Dust2 13-7 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-04 | METANOIA Wolves | 16 Dust2 13-8 | 19 Mirage 13-5 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | MIBR | 13 Cache 9-13 | 18 Inferno 8-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ |








































































































































































