KillsBetter playRisk
Line
33
Pick
OVER
Projection
35.02
Hit
54.7%
EV+
-5.3%
Edge
+2.0
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.1
Hit
54.2%
EV+
-6.1%
Edge
+1.1
L10
40%
#91Ranked 91 of 277 on the board

Rifler
KSCERATO
FURIA vs Natus Vincere
RISK · OVER 33
BEST OVER · UD 32.5PP33UD32.5SL32.5
▲ L5 35.2 · L20 32.5Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 33 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.61
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
No meeting with Natus Vincere in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
32.5
10/20 hit at 33
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm KSCERATO is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 33
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 34+ kills: 0.702 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.5%) or blowout (24.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
35.02
Raw edge
+2.0
Cons. hit
54.7%
EV+
-5.3%
Rating
3.1/10
Exp. rounds
47
Line
33
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.7%
+8.4 →
Learned
63.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 31-35
All players · Kills
60%85 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (34.94) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.8 kills vs line 33.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 51%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.8 against a 33.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 35.02 vs line 33 → +2.02 (6.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47 rounds · 2-0 52.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.25
HS/Map
8.32
K/D
1.26
KPR
0.72
ADR
79.9
KAST
75.3%
HS%
51.2%
Multi-kill
18.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)16.6 · KPR 0.73 · 22.9r
Map 2 (Ancient)18.3 · KPR 0.765 · 24.1r
Required KPR to clear0.702
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.15
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.61%
Final projected kills34.94
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-4.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 33. Model: 60.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.2%
~29 kills · 40r24.4%
Normal45%
~35 kills · 48r59.6%
Close maps20.8%
~38 kills · 50r70.9%
Overtime10%
~42 kills · 56r88%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 56% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
22.9r
+1% KPR here
M2 Ancient
24.1r
+6% KPR here
Total
47r
2-0 sweep52.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 33 (Over) · avg 30.8 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
33
Nearby lines
| 31 Over | 59.5% | |
| 32 Over | 57.3% | below BE |
| 33 Over | 54.7% | OFFERED |
| 34 Over | 51.7% | below BE |
| 35 Over | 48.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 33
Line movement
first 33→33no change
- First seen33Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.73
HS%
49.1%
K/D
1.15
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.78
HS%
53.9%
K/D
1.44
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
18.6
KPR
0.78
HS%
51.5%
K/D
1.33
Cache
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.62
HS%
48.8%
K/D
1.02
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.84
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.4
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.76
HS%
51.5%
K/D
1.4
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
50%
K/D
1.14
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | DENDELE | 13 Ancient 13-8 | 18 Inferno 13-11 | 31 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 21 Dust2 13-6 | 20 Ancient 16-19 | 41 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 22 Dust2 13-8 | 16 Inferno 13-10 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 11 Cache 10-13 | 15 Inferno 13-5 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 21 Mirage 13-9 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 14 Nuke 11-13 | 13 Inferno 6-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 14 Nuke 13-7 | 8 Inferno 13-3 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 20 Dust2 13-8 | 19 Mirage 9-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 7 Ancient 7-13 | 14 Mirage 13-5 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 9 Cache 4-13 | 14 Mirage 7-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 9 Mirage 13-5 | 25 Cache 16-14 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 10 Cache 5-13 | 16 Anubis 8-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 24 Nuke 13-11 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 18 Cache 13-8 | 30 Mirage 16-19 | 48 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 18 Mirage 8-13 | 10 Dust2 5-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 23 Inferno 11-13 | 14 Nuke 13-6 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 26 Ancient 14-16 | 7 Dust2 3-13 | 33 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 10 Mirage 7-13 | 26 Ancient 9-13 | 36 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | PARIVISION | 19 Ancient 13-2 | 22 Inferno 13-11 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | GamerLegion | 9 Cache 11-13 | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ |








































































































































































