KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.64
Hit
37.2%
EV+
-35.6%
Edge
+0.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.81
Hit
49.1%
EV+
-14.9%
Edge
-0.7
L10
60%
#189Ranked 189 of 277 on the board

AWPer
SunPayus
FUT vs Liquid
RISK · UNDER 10.5
BEST UNDER · PP 10.5PP10.5UD9.5
≈ L5 10.0 · L20 9.8Risk · Edge -0.7 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 10.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±1.91
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
No meeting with Liquid in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
9.8
13/20 hit at 10.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm SunPayus is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 10 HS or fewer (under ~33 kills at 33.1% HS): below 0.805 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
9.81
Raw edge
-0.7
Cons. hit
49.1%
EV+
-14.9%
Rating
1.7/10
Exp. rounds
39.4
Line
10.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.1%
+3.8 →
Learned
52.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
42.5%106 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 72% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (9.73) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 9.5 headshots vs line 10.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 33%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 9.5 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 9.81 vs line 10.5 → -0.69 (-6.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.4 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.82
HS/Map
4.9
K/D
1.23
KPR
0.69
ADR
70.4
KAST
77.6%
HS%
33.1%
Multi-kill
15.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)4.8 · KPR 0.738 · 20r
Map 2 (Overpass)4.9 · KPR 0.774 · 19.4r
Required KPR to clear0.805
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.78
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.25%
Final projected kills29.4
× realistic HS% (33.1%)9.81
Liquid gives up (41 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 10.5. Model: 64% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.4%
~8 HS · 33r78.7%
Normal31.6%
~10 HS · 41r56.7%
Close maps22.8%
~11 HS · 42r52.2%
Overtime12.2%
~12 HS · 48r35.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 72% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
20r
-1% KPR here
M2 Overpass
19.4r
+4% KPR here
Total
39.4r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Overpass
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Under) · avg 9.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Under | 17.5% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 34.8% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 49.1% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Under | 62.5% | |
| 12.5 Under | 65.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 10.5→10.5no change
- First seen10.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
13 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.68
HS%
30.4%
K/D
1.14
Overpass
7 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.73
HS%
35.2%
K/D
1.5
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.66
HS%
40.9%
K/D
1.13
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
33.3%
K/D
1.35
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.68
HS%
30.7%
K/D
1.14
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.66
HS%
20.7%
K/D
0.97
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.86
HS%
36.8%
K/D
2.11
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | TYLOO | 7 Nuke 13-9 | 5 Ancient 13-6 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-19 | Spirit | 6 Overpass 13-9 | 3 Dust2 14-16 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-15 | Natus Vincere | 4 Dust2 11-13 | 7 Inferno 16-14 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | G2 | 3 Dust2 13-7 | 6 Overpass 13-4 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | Aurora | 6 Overpass 8-13 | 3 Anubis 7-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-12 | G2 | 5 Overpass 13-5 | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Falcons | 5 Inferno 13-10 | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-08 | G2 | 6 Inferno 13-3 | 2 Mirage 13-8 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-07 | G2 | 3 Anubis 11-13 | 2 Overpass 13-7 | 5 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-15 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 11 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-05-13 | Monte | 2 Ancient 13-2 | 2 Dust2 13-4 | 4 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-12 | PARIVISION | 6 Mirage 13-5 | 8 Dust2 11-13 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-11 | The MongolZ | 0 Dust2 2-13 | 9 Inferno 15-19 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-05-10 | MOUZ | 4 Dust2 16-14 | 4 Mirage 10-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-05-09 | G2 | 6 Ancient 13-1 | 8 Inferno 13-5 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-01 | G2 | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 2 Ancient 13-9 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-04-30 | Vitality | 7 Mirage 13-16 | 3 Overpass 13-11 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-04-29 | Astralis | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 9 Overpass 13-9 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-15 | Spirit | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 4 Dust2 11-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-04-15 | G2 | 3 Inferno 13-6 | 7 Dust2 13-1 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































