KillsBetter playLean
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.98
Hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.3%
Edge
+2.5
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.56
Hit
56.2%
EV+
-2.7%
Edge
+1.1
L10
50%
#73Ranked 73 of 277 on the board

Rifler
n1ssim
Legacy vs DENDELE
RISK · OVER 14.5
BEST OVER · UD 13.5PP14.5UD13.5
≈ L5 15.2 · L20 15.1Risk · Edge +1.1 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.56
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.1
12/20 hit at 14.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm n1ssim is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~28 kills at 53.2% HS): 0.654 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (57.5%) or blowout (22.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.56
Raw edge
+1.1
Cons. hit
56.2%
EV+
-2.7%
Rating
5.2/10
Exp. rounds
41.7
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.2%
+8.3 →
Learned
64.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
61.7%261 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Blowout win risk — team 72% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 57% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.72) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.9 headshots vs line 14.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 53%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 14.9 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.56 vs line 14.5 → +1.06 (7.3%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41.7 rounds · 2-0 57.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.2
HS/Map
7.55
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.64
ADR
72.7
KAST
69.7%
HS%
53.2%
Multi-kill
13.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8.2 · KPR 0.715 · 21.8r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.5 · KPR 0.711 · 19.9r
Required KPR to clear0.654
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.73
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.61%
Final projected kills29.55
× realistic HS% (53.2%)15.56
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 61.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.3%
~13 HS · 35r33.5%
Normal51%
~16 HS · 42r59.5%
Close maps16.7%
~17 HS · 45r68.5%
Overtime10%
~19 HS · 51r83.8%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 72% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Ancient
21.8r
+4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
19.9r
+3% KPR here
Total
41.7r
2-0 sweep57.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 14.9 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 65.6% | |
| 13.5 Over | 60.8% | |
| 14.5 Over | 56.2% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 49.8% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 39.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- First seen14.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.67
HS%
49.1%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
59.2%
K/D
1.04
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.62
HS%
50%
K/D
1.02
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.7
HS%
54%
K/D
1.14
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.44
HS%
50%
K/D
0.68
Cache
2 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.5
HS%
65%
K/D
0.77
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Nemiga | 16 Ancient 23-25 | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 23 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | BetBoom | 9 Nuke 13-16 | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | FURIA | 8 Cache 13-10 | 3 Inferno 5-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | PARIVISION | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 6 Mirage 16-14 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | M80 | 5 Cache 4-13 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | 1win | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 4 Ancient 8-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | ShindeN | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 7 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | PARIVISION | 7 Dust2 13-5 | 3 Inferno 2-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | G2 | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | MIBR | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 8 Ancient 11-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | FURIA | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Alliance | 3 Inferno 13-4 | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | magic | 8 Ancient 13-7 | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Vitality | 13 Nuke 14-16 | 4 Mirage 13-9 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Falcons | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-27 | FUT | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FURIA | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 7 Nuke 13-9 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-22 | Spirit | 12 Dust2 7-13 | 3 Ancient 9-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Falcons | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Natus Vincere | 7 Inferno 13-9 | 11 Ancient 13-2 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |








































































































































































