KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.84
Hit
52.7%
EV+
-8.8%
Edge
-2.7
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.1
Hit
55.6%
EV+
-3.6%
Edge
-1.4
L10
40%
AWPer
Jorko
Liquid vs Legacy
RISK · UNDER 9.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP9.5UD9.5
≈ L5 9.8 · L20 9.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 9.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
43%
6/14
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.97
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 14 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
9.4
6/14 hit at 9.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Jorko is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 32.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 32.6% HS): below 0.759 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
8.1
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
55.6%
EV+
-3.6%
Rating
3.5/10
Exp. rounds
38.4
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
55.6%
0 →
Learned
55.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
51.9%108 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 42.9% at this line
Game script fits · OT 11% (under 22%) · 38.4 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 30% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 1.6 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 9.7 headshots vs line 9.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 33%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 9.7 against a 9.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 8.1 vs line 9.5 → -1.4 (-14.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 17 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
- • Expected 38.4 rounds · 2-0 54.1% · OT 10.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
14.46
HS/Map
4.71
K/D
1.22
KPR
0.66
ADR
64.3
KAST
71.9%
HS%
32.6%
Multi-kill
16.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)4.1 · KPR 0.65 · 19.4r
Map 2 (Inferno)4 · KPR 0.655 · 19r
Required KPR to clear0.759
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.06
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.87%
Final projected kills24.84
× realistic HS% (32.6%)8.1
Legacy gives up (79 series)-1.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 9.5. Model: 69.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.1%
~7 HS · 32r84.5%
Normal57.6%
~8 HS · 40r66.5%
Close maps2.7%
~9 HS · 41r63%
Overtime10.6%
~10 HS · 47r46.9%
Match context
Oct 26, 9:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 29.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 17 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 30% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Cache
19.4r
+5% KPR here
M2 Inferno
19r
+6% KPR here
Total
38.4r
2-0 sweep54.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)13.3%
Overtime10.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 28 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Under) · avg 9.7 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Under | 41.9% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 49.2% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 55.6% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Under | 62.3% | |
| 11.5 Under | 64.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→9.5no change
- First seen9.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Cache
6 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.71
HS%
44%
K/D
1.24
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.72
HS%
26.7%
K/D
1.38
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.58
HS%
32.8%
K/D
0.87
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
32.8%
K/D
1.39
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.86
HS%
27.9%
K/D
1.74
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
19.4%
K/D
1
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.45
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.72
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | FUT | 3 Cache 5-13 | 4 Dust2 9-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | MOUZ | 7 Ancient 13-16 | 5 Inferno 16-12 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | magic | 9 Anubis 10-13 | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 15 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | fnatic | 1 Inferno 7-13 | 4 Cache 4-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 4 Nuke 10-13 | 10 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-13 | JiJieHao | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 7 Cache 13-2 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 2 Dust2 0-13 | 5 Inferno 13-8 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 2 Nuke 9-13 | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Wildcard | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 6 Anubis 13-9 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 9 Cache 16-13 | 1 Anubis 13-2 | 10 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | NRG | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 4 Mirage 13-10 | 10 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicken Coop | 4 Inferno 13-3 | 8 Cache 13-4 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | 1win | 1 Dust2 5-13 | 3 Anubis 13-6 | 4 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | Metizport | 6 Cache 13-9 | 3 Inferno 13-10 | 9 | W | Under ✓ |
