KillsRisk
Line
26
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.46
Hit
46.9%
EV+
-18.7%
Edge
-0.5
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
17
Hit
54.2%
EV+
-6.1%
Edge
+1.0
L10
40%
#106Ranked 106 of 277 on the board

Rifler
Tatu
paiN vs BESTIA
RISK · OVER 16
BEST OVER · PP 16PP16SL16.5
▼ L5 15.6 · L20 18.5Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 16 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.86
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
No meeting with BESTIA in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16
4/10 hit at 16
Online
21
6/10 hit at 16
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Tatu is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~26 kills at 64.7% HS): 0.53 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (61%) or blowout (24.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17
Raw edge
+1.0
Cons. hit
54.2%
EV+
-6.1%
Rating
2.7/10
Exp. rounds
46.7
Line
16
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.2%
+8.5 →
Learned
62.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14-18
All players · Headshots
59%234 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 61% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.6) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.0 headshots vs line 16.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 65%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.0 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17 vs line 16 → +1 (6.3%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 46.7 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.3
HS/Map
9.25
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.57
ADR
64.2
KAST
72.9%
HS%
64.7%
Multi-kill
12.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)9.6 · KPR 0.636 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Cache)8 · KPR 0.534 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.53
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.32
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.44%
Final projected kills27.2
× realistic HS% (64.7%)17
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+4.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16. Model: 58.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~14 HS · 39r28%
Normal40.6%
~17 HS · 46r51%
Close maps20.6%
~18 HS · 50r62.7%
Overtime14.4%
~20 HS · 56r78.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 07:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
23.4r
+12% KPR here
M2 Cache
23.3r
-6% KPR here
Total
46.7r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Over) · avg 16.0 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Over | 62.4% | |
| 15 Over | 58.3% | |
| 16 Over | 54.2% | OFFERED |
| 17 Over | 49.4% | below BE |
| 18 Over | 42.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 16→16no change
- First seen16Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.65
HS%
70.6%
K/D
1.02
Cache
9 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.52
HS%
67%
K/D
0.75
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.77
HS%
62%
K/D
1.19
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.65
HS%
52.9%
K/D
1.04
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
67.3%
K/D
0.83
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.82
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.5
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Galorys | 8 Cache 13-8 | 19 Dust2 22-18 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | Imperial | 5 Inferno 3-13 | 13 Anubis 16-14 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 6 Cache 7-13 | 6 Dust2 13-9 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 3 Inferno 2-13 | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Imperial | 4 Anubis 4-13 | 6 Cache 11-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Galorys | 9 Cache 13-9 | 5 Dust2 13-5 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 7 Cache 13-7 | 13 Dust2 13-3 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Turma do Pagode | 9 Anubis 13-10 | 10 Dust2 13-10 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | Fluxo | 5 Anubis 10-13 | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 9 Anubis 13-6 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-03 | Yawara | 22 Dust2 16-13 | 26 Anubis 16-19 | 48 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-01 | Grêmio | 4 Mirage 13-9 | 10 Inferno 11-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | DAMAJUANA | 8 Mirage 13-4 | 12 Nuke 13-4 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | Isurus | 9 Mirage 13-6 | 15 Inferno 10-13 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-25 | Imperial | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 6 Nuke 3-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | Peladona | 4 Dust2 3-13 | 10 Mirage 14-16 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-16 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 11 Cache 10-13 | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | ALKA | 2 Cache 7-13 | 18 Dust2 8-13 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | METANOIA Wolves | 4 Dust2 13-7 | 12 Cache 13-11 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-10 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 10 Cache 16-13 | 14 Anubis 13-7 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































