KillsBetter playTake
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
21.41
Hit
60.6%
EV+
+5.0%
Edge
-4.1
L10
70%
HeadshotsLean
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.53
Hit
56.6%
EV+
-2.0%
Edge
-2.0
L10
60%
Rifler · IGL
Mercury
TYLOO vs 9z
TAKE · UNDER 25.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP25.5UD25.5
▼ L5 18.6 · L20 23.4LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 25.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
56%
9/16
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Low
±5.64
Previous meeting · vs 9z
1/2 hit · avg 20 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-04 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Nuke 10-13 · Mirage 2-13 · L
14
Under 25.5 ✓
2026-07-09 · XSE Pro League 2026
Nuke 9-13 · Mirage 13-7 · Split
26
Over 25.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
21.5
7/11 hit at 25.5
Online
27.6
2/5 hit at 25.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Mercury is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 24
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 25.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Stays under with 25 kills or fewer: below 0.684 KPR over ~37 rounds. Main danger: overtime (1.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
21.41
Raw edge
-4.1
Cons. hit
60.6%
EV+
+5.0%
Rating
8.1/10
Exp. rounds
37.3
Line
25.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
60.6%
0 →
Learned
60.6%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
43.8%317 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 76.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 56.2% at this line
Game script fits · OT 1% (under 22%) · 37.3 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 26% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 0.1 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 21.5 kills vs line 25.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.54, HS 63%. Next: vs 9z, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 21.5 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: Short maps lately — 19.6 rounds per map for these teams
- Short maps lately — 19.6 rounds per map for these teams
- 34% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE UNDER
Value
THIN
- • Model 21.41 vs line 25.5 → -4.09 (-16.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 37.3 rounds · 2-0 64.2% · OT 1.4%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
11.72
HS/Map
7.41
K/D
0.92
KPR
0.54
ADR
60.8
KAST
73%
HS%
63.2%
Multi-kill
12.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)9.9 · KPR 0.559 · 18.1r
Map 2 (Ancient)11.5 · KPR 0.615 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.684
Base kills (Maps 1-2)21.92
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.32%
Final projected kills21.41
9z gives up (77 series)-2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 25.5. Model: 76.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.7%
~18 kills · 32r93.4%
Normal47.3%
~24 kills · 41r66.1%
Close maps10.6%
~23 kills · 41r67.7%
Overtime1.4%
~27 kills · 47r42.3%
Match context
Oct 26, 6:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 25.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 26% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Mirage
18.1r
+7% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.2r
+18% KPR here
Total
37.3r
2-0 sweep64.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)12%
Overtime1.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + 2 past meetings + market. Rounds & blowout from 32 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 4 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Under) · avg 21.5 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Under | 55% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 58.2% | |
| 25.5 Under | 60.6% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Under | 62.3% | |
| 27.5 Under | 64.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 24
Line movement
first 25.5→25.5no change
- First seen25.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
10.7
KPR
0.59
HS%
68.2%
K/D
0.95
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.68
HS%
60.2%
K/D
1.07
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
62.3%
K/D
1
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.61
HS%
60%
K/D
0.92
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
6
KPR
0.33
HS%
50%
K/D
0.4
Cache
2 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.53
HS%
71.4%
K/D
0.75
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Spirit | 9 Mirage 5-13 | 6 Anubis 3-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | FUT | 12 Nuke 9-13 | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | M80 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 9 Cache 7-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 9z | 10 Nuke 10-13 | 4 Mirage 2-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Falcons | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 6 Anubis 7-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Alliance | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 16 Ancient 11-13 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | GamerLegion | 13 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Mirage 13-6 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | PARIVISION | 16 Inferno 11-13 | 6 Ancient 4-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DEPO | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 9 Inferno 13-2 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 18 Mirage 13-5 | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Lynn Vision | 13 Nuke 8-13 | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-12 | Lynn Vision | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 23 Inferno 10-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | The Huns | 17 Ancient 13-9 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | The MongolZ Academy | 17 Ancient 13-3 | 8 Mirage 13-1 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-09 | 9z | 13 Nuke 9-13 | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-03 | EYEBALLERS | 17 Nuke 13-6 | 12 Cache 13-7 | 29 | W | Over ✗ |
