KillsRisk
Line
24
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.51
Hit
54.1%
EV+
-6.3%
Edge
+1.5
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
12.94
Hit
56.8%
EV+
-1.6%
Edge
+0.4
L10
70%
Rifler · IGL
stanislaw
Metizport vs BRUTE
RISK · OVER 12.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP12.5UD12.5
▲ L5 14.8 · L20 13.3Risk · Edge +0.4 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 12.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
72%
13/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.57
Previous meeting · vs BRUTE
No meeting with BRUTE in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
11
2/4 hit at 12.5
Online · this match
14
11/14 hit at 12.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm stanislaw is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 13+ HS (~26 kills at 50.7% HS): 0.51 KPR over ~48 rounds. His Kills line is 24: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (16.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
12.94
Raw edge
+0.4
Cons. hit
56.8%
EV+
-1.6%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
48.3
Line
12.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.8%
0 →
Learned
56.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
55.1%314 picks
This player
50%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 72.2% at this line
Game script fits · 48.3 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 17% (under 40%) · team 59% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 0.3 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.2 headshots vs line 12.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.56, HS 51%. Next: vs BRUTE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 13.2 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 12.94 vs line 12.5 → +0.44 (3.5%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 48.3 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 20.7%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
13.14
HS/Map
6.67
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.56
ADR
64.9
KAST
75.4%
HS%
50.7%
Multi-kill
11.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)6.4 · KPR 0.513 · 24.3r
Map 2 (Inferno)6.5 · KPR 0.532 · 24r
Required KPR to clear0.51
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.24
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.07%
Final projected kills25.51
× realistic HS% (50.7%)12.94
BRUTE gives up (32 series)-2.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 12.5. Model: 54.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps16.8%
~11 HS · 41r30%
Normal54.1%
~13 HS · 47r47.7%
Close maps8.4%
~14 HS · 52r62.1%
Overtime20.7%
~15 HS · 58r76.1%
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 AM CTOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.0%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 59% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Nuke
24.3r
-5% KPR here
M2 Inferno
24r
-2% KPR here
Total
48.3r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime20.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)16.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 36 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Over) · avg 13.2 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Over | 65.5% | |
| 11.5 Over | 61.5% | |
| 12.5 Over | 56.8% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Over | 50.6% | below BE |
| 14.5 Over | 40.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 12.5→12.5no change
- First seen12.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Nuke
14 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.52
HS%
48.1%
K/D
0.83
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.55
HS%
47%
K/D
0.8
Cache
6 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
51.8%
K/D
1.13
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.55
HS%
56.4%
K/D
0.9
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.69
HS%
50%
K/D
1.16
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.54
HS%
68%
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | BAKS | 10 Cache 13-6 | 5 Nuke 10-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Sangal | 11 Cache 16-14 | 6 Nuke 17-19 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | GenOne | 6 Cache 13-3 | 5 Nuke 13-2 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | K27 | 6 Nuke 13-11 | 9 Mirage 8-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Inner Circle Academy | 7 Anubis 13-9 | 7 Nuke 13-9 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | aimclub | 2 Mirage 13-6 | 2 Inferno 7-13 | 4 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | HAVU | 3 Nuke 8-13 | 8 Inferno 13-6 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Optibet | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 8 Nuke 13-8 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Nemiga | 8 Mirage 14-16 | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 14 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 5 Cache 13-6 | 8 Nuke 14-16 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | Lavked | 1 Inferno 13-11 | 12 Mirage 16-14 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-05 | 9INE | 6 Nuke 25-23 | 10 Ancient 13-11 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Sashi | 6 Inferno 16-13 | 6 Cache 16-13 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Walczaki | 9 Inferno 13-6 | 9 Anubis 13-9 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 7 Inferno 8-13 | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | ASTRAL | 6 Cache 9-13 | 4 Nuke 13-8 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | PCIFIC | 7 Nuke 13-7 | 6 Inferno 13-7 | 13 | W | Over ✓ |
