KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.7
Hit
42.3%
EV+
-26.7%
Edge
-1.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.5
Hit
39.7%
EV+
-31.3%
Edge
-0.5
L10
40%
#257Ranked 257 of 277 on the board

AWPer
torzsi
MOUZ vs 9z
RISK · UNDER 30.5
BEST UNDER · PP 30.5PP30.5UD30.5SL29.5
≈ L5 31.4 · L20 30.8Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 30.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
High
±8.75
Previous meeting · vs 9z
0/1 hit · avg 36 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-27 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Cache 13-4 · Nuke 13-7 · W
36
Over 30.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
30.8
10/20 hit at 30.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm torzsi is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.768 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.7
Raw edge
-1.8
Cons. hit
42.3%
EV+
-26.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.7
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.3%
+3.5 →
Learned
45.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
44.8%286 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (27.54) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.7 kills vs line 30.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 33%. Next: vs 9z, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.7 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.7 vs line 30.5 → -1.8 (-5.9%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.7 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.38
HS/Map
5.05
K/D
1.25
KPR
0.69
ADR
68.6
KAST
79%
HS%
32.8%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)13.9 · KPR 0.692 · 20.3r
Map 2 (Cache)13.6 · KPR 0.71 · 19.4r
Required KPR to clear0.768
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.82
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.01%
Final projected kills27.54
9z gives up (77 series)-2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30.5. Model: 58.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.1%
~24 kills · 33r81.6%
Normal37.1%
~29 kills · 41r58.6%
Close maps16.4%
~31 kills · 43r51.8%
Overtime14.4%
~35 kills · 49r31.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
20.3r
-8% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.4r
-5% KPR here
Total
39.7r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Under) · avg 30.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Under | 32.9% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 37.6% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 42.3% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Under | 47% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 49.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→30.5no change
- First seen30.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.63
HS%
27%
K/D
1.13
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.79
HS%
30.3%
K/D
1.61
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.64
HS%
34.4%
K/D
1.19
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
36%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
18.8
KPR
0.79
HS%
38.1%
K/D
1.33
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
34.3%
K/D
1.2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 23 Ancient 16-13 | 25 Inferno 12-16 | 48 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 6 Cache 8-13 | 8 Inferno 7-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 25 Dust2 13-7 | 11 Mirage 5-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 16 Inferno 13-6 | 30 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 20 Dust2 13-5 | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 18 Cache 13-4 | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 17 Cache 13-9 | 21 Mirage 13-6 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 13 Cache 8-13 | 20 Mirage 19-16 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 15 Cache 10-13 | 11 Inferno 13-10 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 10 Cache 11-13 | 12 Inferno 13-5 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 16 Dust2 8-13 | 10 Mirage 13-11 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 11 Nuke 6-13 | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 6 Ancient 13-4 | 12 Mirage 13-5 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 14 Cache 13-4 | 22 Nuke 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 15 Dust2 13-16 | 16 Ancient 5-13 | 31 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 12 Mirage 13-11 | 36 Ancient 19-22 | 48 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 14 Inferno 13-10 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 17 Ancient 6-13 | 20 Nuke 16-12 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Spirit | 20 Dust2 13-8 | 14 Mirage 13-4 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | BO |








































































































































































