HeadshotsRisk
Line
18
Pick
UNDER
Projection
17.5
Hit
40.3%
EV+
-30.3%
Edge
-0.5
L10
40%
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Rifler
HeavyGod
G2 vs DENDELE
RISK · UNDER 18
BEST UNDER · PP 18PP18UD17.5
▲ L5 19.0 · L20 17.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 18 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.37
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.9
9/20 hit at 18
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm HeavyGod is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 17 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 59.4% HS): below 0.746 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (16.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
17.5
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
40.3%
EV+
-30.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
18
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
40.3%
0 →
Learned
40.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 16-20
All players · Headshots
45.8%260 picks
This player
0%4 picks
Warning: HeavyGod is 0-4 with us at this line (±2). Being backtested before he's kept out of Top 3 and slips.
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 17% (under 22%) · 40.6 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 76% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 1.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.5 headshots vs line 18.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 59%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.5 against a 18.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.5 vs line 18 → -0.5 (-2.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 56.3% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.1
HS/Map
8.97
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.68
ADR
75.5
KAST
74%
HS%
59.4%
Multi-kill
17.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8.5 · KPR 0.735 · 19.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)9 · KPR 0.715 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.746
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.42
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.17%
Final projected kills29.47
× realistic HS% (59.4%)17.5
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 18. Model: 53.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25%
~15 HS · 34r74.6%
Normal44.2%
~17 HS · 40r54.4%
Close maps14.1%
~19 HS · 43r42.6%
Overtime16.7%
~21 HS · 49r24.9%
Match context
Oct 26, 12:00 PM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
19.5r
+5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.1r
+2% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep56.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18 (Under) · avg 18.5 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
18
Nearby lines
| 16 Under | 29.4% | below BE |
| 17 Under | 35.8% | below BE |
| 18 Under | 40.3% | OFFERED |
| 19 Under | 44.6% | below BE |
| 20 Under | 50.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18
Line movement
first 18→18no change
- First seen18Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
60.2%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.7
HS%
65.9%
K/D
1.09
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.66
HS%
60.2%
K/D
1.01
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.76
HS%
48.3%
K/D
1.28
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.53
HS%
48.1%
K/D
0.74
Cache
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.63
HS%
70.9%
K/D
0.96
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.5
HS%
50%
K/D
0.75
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Aurora | 14 Cache 11-13 | 10 Inferno 14-16 | 24 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-24 | Natus Vincere | 6 Nuke 11-13 | 20 Dust2 19-22 | 26 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 3 Ancient 7-13 | 7 Anubis 13-9 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 8 Ancient 13-9 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 8 Ancient 13-1 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 6 Cache 7-13 | 8 Inferno 4-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 12 Ancient 9-13 | 8 Mirage 10-13 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 7 Anubis 16-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 13 Ancient 16-14 | 12 Dust2 13-3 | 25 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 12 Inferno 13-9 | 8 Ancient 13-4 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 12 Ancient 13-8 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 10 Cache 8-13 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 7 Mirage 19-17 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 9 Dust2 9-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 9 Anubis 7-13 | 9 Inferno 19-16 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 11 Ancient 13-6 | 12 Inferno 13-10 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 3 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Cache 9-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 8 Inferno 13-5 | 10 Anubis 16-12 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 5 Ancient 3-13 | 9 Anubis 13-3 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ |
