KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.93
Hit
44.2%
EV+
-23.4%
Edge
-1.6
L10
80%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.02
Hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.6%
Edge
+0.5
L10
80%
#115Ranked 115 of 277 on the board

Rifler
NAF
Liquid vs FUT
RISK · OVER 13.5
BEST OVER · PP 13.5PP13.5UD14.5SL13.5
▲ L5 17.0 · L20 14.5Risk · Edge +0.5 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 13.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
71%
10/14
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.34
Previous meeting · vs FUT
No meeting with FUT in his last 14 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.5
10/14 hit at 13.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm NAF is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 27.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 14+ HS (~27 kills at 52.5% HS): 0.659 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.5%) or blowout (40.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.02
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.6%
Rating
2.8/10
Exp. rounds
39
Line
13.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.9%
+8.5 →
Learned
62.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 11.5-15.5
All players · Headshots
60.7%224 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout loss risk — team only 28% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 71.4% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (12.74) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.4 headshots vs line 13.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 52%. Next: vs FUT, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.4 against a 13.5 line
Biggest risk: 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.02 vs line 13.5 → +0.52 (3.9%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 39 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 10.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
13.82
HS/Map
7.25
K/D
1.23
KPR
0.7
ADR
77.6
KAST
78.3%
HS%
52.5%
Multi-kill
16.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)7 · KPR 0.68 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)5.7 · KPR 0.587 · 18.9r
Required KPR to clear0.659
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.75
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.94%
Final projected kills24.27
× realistic HS% (52.5%)14.02
FUT gives up (43 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 13.5. Model: 54.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.1%
~12 HS · 33r30.1%
Normal46.6%
~15 HS · 42r64.4%
Close maps2.7%
~15 HS · 42r63.1%
Overtime10.6%
~17 HS · 48r80%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 27.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 28% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Inferno
20.1r
+4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
18.9r
-11% KPR here
Total
39r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)13.3%
Overtime10.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13.5 (Over) · avg 16.4 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
13.5
Nearby lines
| 11.5 Over | 61.6% | |
| 12.5 Over | 58.4% | |
| 13.5 Over | 53.9% | OFFERED |
| 14.5 Over | 48.8% | below BE |
| 15.5 Over | 41.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13.5
Line movement
first 13.5→13.5no change
- First seen13.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.74
HS%
63%
K/D
1.53
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.58
HS%
40%
K/D
1.15
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
44.8%
K/D
1.18
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.22
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.39
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.65
HS%
43.3%
K/D
0.83
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
21
KPR
0.72
HS%
47.6%
K/D
1.11
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | MOUZ | 10 Ancient 13-16 | 10 Inferno 16-12 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | magic | 11 Anubis 10-13 | 5 Dust2 10-13 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | fnatic | 7 Inferno 7-13 | 1 Cache 4-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 10 Nuke 10-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | JiJieHao | 7 Mirage 13-11 | 13 Cache 13-2 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 4 Dust2 0-13 | 11 Inferno 13-8 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 3 Nuke 9-13 | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Wildcard | 10 Inferno 13-4 | 9 Anubis 13-9 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 8 Cache 16-13 | 9 Anubis 13-2 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | NRG | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicken Coop | 10 Inferno 13-3 | 4 Cache 13-4 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | 1win | 2 Dust2 5-13 | 6 Anubis 13-6 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | Metizport | 4 Cache 13-9 | 10 Inferno 13-10 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Dhala | 3 Dust2 13-4 | 0 Nuke 0-1 | 3 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































