KillsRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.27
Hit
48.1%
EV+
-16.6%
Edge
-1.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.43
Hit
50.5%
EV+
-12.5%
Edge
-0.6
L10
60%
Rifler
vision
Ground Zero vs Off Chops
RISK · UNDER 15
▼ L5 14.2 · L20 15.9Risk · Edge -0.6 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 15 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
42%
8/19
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.88
Previous meeting · vs Off Chops
1/1 hit · avg 10 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 6-13 · Anubis 13-11 · Split
10
Under 15 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.8
2/4 hit at 15
Online
16.2
6/15 hit at 15
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm vision is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 26.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~26 kills at 57.1% HS): below 0.642 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.43
Raw edge
-0.6
Cons. hit
50.5%
EV+
-12.5%
Rating
3/10
Exp. rounds
40.9
Line
15
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.5%
0 →
Learned
50.5%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 13-17
All players · Headshots
41.8%397 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 42.1% at this line
Game script fits · OT 8% (under 22%) · 40.9 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 26% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.6 headshots vs line 15.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 57%. Next: vs Off Chops, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 14.6 against a 15.0 line
- 35% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.43 vs line 15 → -0.57 (-3.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 40.9 rounds · 2-0 63.3% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.65
HS/Map
7.8
K/D
1.05
KPR
0.62
ADR
72.3
KAST
70.6%
HS%
57.1%
Multi-kill
12.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)7.4 · KPR 0.662 · 20r
Map 2 (Inferno)7 · KPR 0.596 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.642
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.7
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.67%
Final projected kills25.27
× realistic HS% (57.1%)14.43
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15. Model: 55.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.5%
~12 HS · 35r74.7%
Normal27.3%
~16 HS · 45r39.7%
Close maps24.4%
~16 HS · 44r41.1%
Overtime7.8%
~18 HS · 50r23.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 26.0%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 26% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Dust2
20r
+10% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.9r
-1% KPR here
Total
40.9r
2-0 sweep63.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)32.2%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15 (Under) · avg 14.6 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
15
Nearby lines
| 13 Under | 32.5% | below BE |
| 14 Under | 40.4% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 50.5% | OFFERED |
| 16 Under | 56.2% | below BE |
| 17 Under | 60.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15
Line movement
first 15→offno change
- Pulled15Oct 25, 10:14 PM
- First seen15Oct 24, 01:46 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.62
HS%
62.3%
K/D
0.95
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.06
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.72
HS%
62.2%
K/D
1.11
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
55.8%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.61
HS%
59.6%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.83
HS%
34.5%
K/D
1.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Off Chops | 3 Dust2 6-13 | 7 Anubis 13-11 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 11 Inferno 13-3 | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Abyssal | 8 Inferno 8-13 | 5 Nuke 7-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | FlyQuest | 8 Anubis 10-13 | 10 Inferno 10-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 7 Inferno 8-13 | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Rooster | 6 Anubis 6-13 | 12 Nuke 13-11 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Abyssal | 8 Inferno 13-11 | 13 Dust2 12-16 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 4 Ancient 4-13 | 4 Dust2 3-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-01 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 10 Dust2 8-13 | 4 Inferno 1-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-31 | Arcade | 6 Nuke 13-3 | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 7 Nuke 5-13 | 8 Inferno 13-11 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Rooster | 5 Anubis 13-4 | 15 Nuke 19-15 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-26 | LFO 8 | 11 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-13 | Abyssal | 6 Ancient 13-1 | 9 Anubis 13-8 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-12 | Mindfreak | 7 Inferno 13-6 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-10 | Mindfreak | 15 Nuke 13-10 | 9 Anubis 13-4 | 24 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-06 | Abyssal | 4 Mirage 13-0 | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | Time Waves | 13 Inferno 19-17 | 9 Nuke 13-3 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-06-11 | Ding Cuts | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 5 Nuke 13-1 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
