KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.28
Hit
47.5%
EV+
-17.7%
Edge
-1.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.56
Hit
53.6%
EV+
-7.2%
Edge
+0.1
L10
60%
#121Ranked 121 of 277 on the board

Rifler
drop
BESTIA vs paiN
RISK · OVER 17.5
BEST OVER · PP 17.5PP17.5SL18.5
▲ L5 17.2 · L20 16.5Risk · Edge +0.1 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 17.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±7
Previous meeting · vs paiN
No meeting with paiN in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
16.9
8/18 hit at 17.5
Online · this match
13
0/2 hit at 17.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm drop is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~30 kills at 60.8% HS): 0.651 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (61%) or blowout (26.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.56
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
53.6%
EV+
-7.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.2
Line
17.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.6%
+1.2 →
Learned
54.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%204 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 61% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.72) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.6 headshots vs line 18.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 61%. Next: vs paiN, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 19.6 against a 18.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.56 vs line 17.5 → +0.06 (0.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.2 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.57
HS/Map
8.25
K/D
0.95
KPR
0.69
ADR
79.6
KAST
73.8%
HS%
60.8%
Multi-kill
19.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)8.5 · KPR 0.629 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Ancient)9.2 · KPR 0.702 · 21.8r
Required KPR to clear0.651
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.39
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.85%
Final projected kills29.14
× realistic HS% (60.8%)17.56
paiN gives up (81 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17.5. Model: 50.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~15 HS · 37r29.6%
Normal50.8%
~18 HS · 45r48.4%
Close maps10.3%
~19 HS · 47r53.6%
Overtime12.2%
~21 HS · 53r66.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
22.4r
-9% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.8r
+1% KPR here
Total
44.2r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Over) · avg 19.6 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Over | 60.7% | |
| 16.5 Over | 56.7% | below BE |
| 17.5 Over | 53.6% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Over | 48.2% | below BE |
| 19.5 Over | 42.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 18.5→17.5-1
- Back on board18.5 → 17.5Oct 25, 05:41 AM
- Pulled18.5Oct 25, 05:31 AM
- First seen18.5Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Mirage
12 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.61
HS%
68.8%
K/D
0.92
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.71
HS%
53.5%
K/D
0.95
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
9.2
KPR
0.51
HS%
60%
K/D
0.76
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.63
HS%
61.9%
K/D
0.95
Cache
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.77
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1.18
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
49.1%
K/D
0.98
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.9
HS%
55.6%
K/D
2
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.42
HS%
62.5%
K/D
0.5
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 8 Ancient 13-9 | 10 Inferno 13-11 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 10 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 11 Cache 13-5 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 5 Ancient 10-13 | 14 Mirage 10-13 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Cache 6-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 15 Cache 16-14 | 12 Mirage 19-16 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 16 Mirage 16-13 | 20 Inferno 22-19 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 2 Nuke 2-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 13 Ancient 13-7 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 7 Inferno 13-3 | 4 Mirage 13-2 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 9 Cache 7-13 | 7 Ancient 4-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-15 | Spirit | 10 Mirage 13-8 | 12 Ancient 8-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-04-14 | RED Canids | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 2 Ancient 4-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-13 | Vitality | 4 Nuke 4-13 | 5 Overpass 6-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-02 | RED Canids | 14 Nuke 13-7 | 10 Anubis 13-7 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-03-28 | DASH | 4 Nuke 13-4 | 11 Inferno 12-16 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-03-28 | RED Canids | 5 Mirage 13-4 | 2 Nuke 13-7 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-03-27 | RED Canids | 4 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ |








































































































































































