KillsBetter playNeutral
Line
23
Pick
UNDER
Projection
19.66
Hit
56.3%
EV+
-2.6%
Edge
-3.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.34
Hit
54.5%
EV+
-5.6%
Edge
-1.2
L10
70%
#71Ranked 71 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
JT
Liquid vs FUT
NEUTRAL · UNDER 23
BEST UNDER · PP 23PP23UD22.5SL22.5
▲ L5 22.4 · L20 20.4LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 23 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
71%
10/14
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±8.14
Previous meeting · vs FUT
No meeting with FUT in his last 14 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
20.4
10/14 hit at 23
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm JT is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 23
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 27.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Neutral
What to watch · Stays under with 22 kills or fewer: below 0.59 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
19.66
Raw edge
-3.3
Cons. hit
56.3%
EV+
-2.6%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
39
Line
23
Verdict
Neutral
Plain model
56.3%
-8.7 →
Learned
47.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 21-25
All players · Kills
31.9%47 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 71.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (18.49) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.4 kills vs line 23.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.52, HS 56%. Next: vs FUT, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 22.4 against a 23.0 line
Biggest risk: 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 19.66 vs line 23 → -3.34 (-14.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 39 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 10.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
10.18
HS/Map
5.71
K/D
0.78
KPR
0.52
ADR
61.5
KAST
73.6%
HS%
56.1%
Multi-kill
10.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)9.1 · KPR 0.463 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)9.4 · KPR 0.505 · 18.9r
Required KPR to clear0.59
Base kills (Maps 1-2)18.86
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.94%
Final projected kills18.49
FUT gives up (43 series)+1.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 23. Model: 65.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.1%
~17 kills · 33r81.3%
Normal46.6%
~21 kills · 42r60.1%
Close maps2.7%
~21 kills · 42r61.1%
Overtime10.6%
~24 kills · 48r46.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 27.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 28% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Inferno
20.1r
-5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
18.9r
+3% KPR here
Total
39r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)13.3%
Overtime10.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 23 (Under) · avg 22.4 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
23
Nearby lines
| 21 Under | 49.3% | below BE |
| 22 Under | 53.9% | below BE |
| 23 Under | 56.3% | OFFERED |
| 24 Under | 58.3% | |
| 25 Under | 60.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 23
Line movement
first 23→23no change
- First seen23Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.48
HS%
68.3%
K/D
0.87
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
10.4
KPR
0.55
HS%
50%
K/D
0.83
Cache
5 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.55
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.93
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.52
HS%
48.9%
K/D
0.81
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
9.2
KPR
0.47
HS%
62.2%
K/D
0.65
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.52
HS%
45.8%
K/D
0.65
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.34
HS%
60%
K/D
0.48
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | MOUZ | 10 Ancient 13-16 | 26 Inferno 16-12 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | magic | 6 Anubis 10-13 | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | fnatic | 1 Inferno 7-13 | 9 Cache 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Nuke 10-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | JiJieHao | 13 Mirage 13-11 | 18 Cache 13-2 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 3 Dust2 0-13 | 13 Inferno 13-8 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 15 Nuke 9-13 | 13 Mirage 13-8 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Wildcard | 5 Inferno 13-4 | 11 Anubis 13-9 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 13 Cache 16-13 | 8 Anubis 13-2 | 21 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | NRG | 21 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicken Coop | 9 Inferno 13-3 | 4 Cache 13-4 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | 1win | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 12 Anubis 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | Metizport | 11 Cache 13-9 | 6 Inferno 13-10 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Dhala | 15 Dust2 13-4 | 0 Nuke 0-1 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































