KillsBetter playRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.36
Hit
46.1%
EV+
-20.1%
Edge
-0.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.35
Hit
45.2%
EV+
-21.7%
Edge
-0.1
L10
40%

Rifler
luchov
9z vs MOUZ
RISK · UNDER 27.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP27.5UD27.5SL27.5
≈ L5 28.8 · L20 28.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 27.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
High
±10.04
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
1/1 hit · avg 23 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-27 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Cache 4-13 · Nuke 7-13 · L
23
Under 27.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.4
10/20 hit at 27.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm luchov is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 24.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 27 kills or fewer: below 0.677 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
27.36
Raw edge
-0.1
Cons. hit
46.1%
EV+
-20.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
27.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.1%
+1.1 →
Learned
47.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
44.1%331 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.75) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.1 kills vs line 26.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 60%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.1 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.36 vs line 27.5 → -0.14 (-0.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.18
HS/Map
8.53
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.69
ADR
78.7
KAST
70.5%
HS%
60.1%
Multi-kill
17.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)12.6 · KPR 0.658 · 19.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)14.1 · KPR 0.676 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.677
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.09
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.28%
Final projected kills26.75
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 27.5. Model: 50.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.9%
~23 kills · 34r72.5%
Normal47.6%
~28 kills · 42r50.3%
Close maps12.5%
~29 kills · 43r46.5%
Overtime10%
~33 kills · 49r31.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 24.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 24% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Nuke
19.4r
+2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.2r
+4% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Under) · avg 28.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Under | 41.4% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 43.8% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 46.1% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Under | 48.5% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 50.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 26.5→27.5+1
- Moved up26.5 → 27.5Oct 25, 05:24 AM
- Moved down27.5 → 26.5Oct 25, 05:24 AM
- Moved up26.5 → 27.5Oct 25, 05:23 AM
- Moved down27.5 → 26.5Oct 25, 05:22 AM
- Moved up26.5 → 27.5Oct 25, 05:22 AM
- Back on board26.5 → 26.5Oct 25, 05:14 AM
- Pulled26.5Oct 25, 04:38 AM
- First seen26.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
64.1%
K/D
0.98
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.73
HS%
59.5%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.58
HS%
52.9%
K/D
0.76
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.55
HS%
56.2%
K/D
0.79
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.7
HS%
68.1%
K/D
1.05
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.58
HS%
48.5%
K/D
0.8
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Vitality | 18 Mirage 10-13 | 16 Cache 10-13 | 34 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 17 Cache 11-13 | 1 Inferno 4-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 19 Nuke 9-13 | 24 Mirage 13-8 | 43 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 21 Inferno 13-11 | 17 Nuke 13-1 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 10 Nuke 7-13 | 1 Inferno 3-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 17 Dust2 13-8 | 22 Mirage 13-9 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 12 Nuke 6-13 | 13 Cache 6-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 18 Nuke 13-10 | 14 Mirage 13-2 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 18 Mirage 11-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Ancient 8-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 13 Nuke 7-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 14 Cache 13-3 | 9 Nuke 13-4 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 8 Dust2 2-13 | 13 Nuke 6-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 9 Cache 4-13 | 14 Nuke 7-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 25 Ancient 17-19 | 14 Dust2 13-10 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 14 Dust2 6-13 | 16 Mirage 16-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 18 Mirage 13-9 | 13 Inferno 13-10 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 18 Nuke 13-10 | 28 Inferno 17-19 | 46 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 16 Nuke 13-9 | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-05 | MIBR | 11 Nuke 13-10 | 19 Mirage 16-13 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | OT |








































































































































































