KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.57
Hit
49.4%
EV+
-14.4%
Edge
+1.1
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.05
Hit
52.3%
EV+
-9.4%
Edge
+0.6
L10
40%
#132Ranked 132 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
biguzera
paiN vs BESTIA
RISK · OVER 16.5
BEST OVER · UD 14.5PP16.5UD14.5
▲ L5 18.0 · L20 15.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
30%
6/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.49
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
No meeting with BESTIA in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.6
6/16 hit at 16.5
Online
14.3
0/4 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm biguzera is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~32 kills at 53.9% HS): 0.667 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (61%) or blowout (24.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.05
Raw edge
+0.6
Cons. hit
52.3%
EV+
-9.4%
Rating
1.1/10
Exp. rounds
45.9
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.3%
+8.6 →
Learned
60.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
59.5%247 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 30.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 30.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 61% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.64) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.2 headshots vs line 17.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 54%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.2 against a 17.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 17.05 vs line 16.5 → +0.55 (3.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.9 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.2
HS/Map
7.65
K/D
1
KPR
0.69
ADR
78.1
KAST
74%
HS%
53.9%
Multi-kill
17.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)8.1 · KPR 0.671 · 22.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)8.6 · KPR 0.683 · 23.4r
Required KPR to clear0.667
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.08
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.66%
Final projected kills30.87
× realistic HS% (53.9%)17.05
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+4.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 54.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~14 HS · 39r27.6%
Normal44.8%
~17 HS · 46r54%
Close maps18.6%
~18 HS · 49r64.1%
Overtime12.2%
~21 HS · 55r80.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 07:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Cache
22.5r
-2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
23.4r
-1% KPR here
Total
45.9r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 16.2 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 62.9% | |
| 15.5 Over | 57.1% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 52.3% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 45% | below BE |
| 18.5 Over | 37.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 17→16.5-0.5
- Moved down17 → 16.5Oct 25, 02:40 AM
- Moved up16.5 → 17Oct 25, 02:40 AM
- Moved down17 → 16.5Oct 25, 02:39 AM
- Moved up16.5 → 17Oct 25, 02:38 AM
- Moved down17 → 16.5Oct 25, 02:38 AM
- First seen17Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
50.4%
K/D
1
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
58.1%
K/D
1.17
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.52
HS%
51.2%
K/D
0.73
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
61%
K/D
1.15
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.78
HS%
51.7%
K/D
1.23
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.52
HS%
45.8%
K/D
0.75
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Galorys | 7 Cache 13-8 | 20 Dust2 22-18 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | Imperial | 3 Inferno 3-13 | 12 Anubis 16-14 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 8 Cache 7-13 | 10 Dust2 13-9 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 2 Inferno 2-13 | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Imperial | 7 Anubis 4-13 | 13 Cache 11-13 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Galorys | 9 Cache 13-9 | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 4 Cache 13-7 | 9 Dust2 13-3 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Turma do Pagode | 5 Anubis 13-10 | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | Fluxo | 9 Anubis 10-13 | 5 Mirage 13-10 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Anubis 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | BIG | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 5 Cache 8-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | HOTU | 5 Cache 11-13 | 10 Nuke 4-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Natus Vincere | 6 Nuke 9-13 | 8 Mirage 11-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | FURIA | 3 Mirage 2-13 | 5 Cache 6-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | The MongolZ | 11 Nuke 10-13 | 7 Inferno 4-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Wildcard | 6 Inferno 12-16 | 5 Nuke 13-3 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-31 | Astralis | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 15 Inferno 17-19 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 6 Mirage 16-14 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-23 | Gentle Mates | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-16 | 3DMAX | 9 Cache 10-13 | 3 Inferno 4-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































