KillsRisk
Line
33
Pick
OVER
Projection
37.59
Hit
57.4%
EV+
-0.6%
Edge
+4.6
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playTake
Line
12
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.81
Hit
65.3%
EV+
+13.1%
Edge
+2.8
L10
70%
AWPer
lattykk
Color vs ex-Zero Tenacity
RISK · OVER 33
▼ L5 27.4 · L20 33.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1L10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 33 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±10.3
Previous meeting · vs ex-Zero Tenacity
No meeting with ex-Zero Tenacity in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
23.3
0/3 hit at 33
Online · this match
35.8
8/17 hit at 33
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm lattykk is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 33
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 48.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 34+ kills: 0.68 KPR over ~49 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55%) or blowout (20.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
37.59
Raw edge
+4.6
Cons. hit
57.4%
EV+
-0.6%
Rating
2.9/10
Exp. rounds
48.5
Line
33
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
57.4%
0 →
Learned
57.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 31-35
All players · Kills
55.6%144 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 67.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 form (4/10 rule): L10 4/10 at this line · projection 4.9 from his L10 avg · blocked
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · 48.5 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 21% (under 40%) · team 48% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 4.9 from his L10 avg · blocked
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.7 kills vs line 33.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 39%. Next: vs ex-Zero Tenacity, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 32.7 against a 33.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 37.59 vs line 33 → +4.59 (13.9%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 48.5 rounds · 2-0 55% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.95
HS/Map
6.67
K/D
1.34
KPR
0.72
ADR
74.5
KAST
73.3%
HS%
39.4%
Multi-kill
18.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)20.6 · KPR 0.829 · 24.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)17 · KPR 0.712 · 23.8r
Required KPR to clear0.68
Base kills (Maps 1-2)37.42
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.43%
Final projected kills37.59
ex-Zero Tenacity gives up (62 series)-2.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 33. Model: 67.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.6%
~32 kills · 41r38.5%
Normal48.6%
~37 kills · 48r61.9%
Close maps14.1%
~40 kills · 52r74.5%
Overtime16.7%
~45 kills · 58r87%
Match context
Oct 25, 1:00 PM CTOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 48.0%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 48% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24.7r
+19% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.8r
+2% KPR here
Total
48.5r
2-0 sweep55%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.6%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 33 (Over) · avg 32.7 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
33
Nearby lines
| 31 Over | 61.6% | |
| 32 Over | 59% | |
| 33 Over | 57.4% | OFFERED |
| 34 Over | 55.5% | below BE |
| 35 Over | 53.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 33
Line movement
first 33→offno change
- Pulled32Oct 25, 11:13 AM
- Moved down33 → 32Oct 25, 10:06 AM
- First seen33Oct 24, 03:30 PM
Map stats
Dust2
14 maps
Kills
21.4
KPR
0.88
HS%
42.7%
K/D
1.67
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.74
HS%
39.7%
K/D
1.22
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
10.4
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.85
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.68
HS%
32.1%
K/D
1.25
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.71
HS%
28.2%
K/D
1.22
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
36%
K/D
1.22
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | The MongolZ | 10 Inferno 9-13 | 21 Ancient 10-13 | 31 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Liquid | 12 Anubis 13-10 | 18 Dust2 13-10 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | PARIVISION | 3 Mirage 4-13 | 6 Ancient 2-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Nemiga | 9 Cache 5-13 | 17 Dust2 13-9 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | WW | 17 Dust2 13-8 | 24 Mirage 16-14 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-20 | Color | 29 Anubis 16-14 | 19 Mirage 13-10 | 48 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Color | 21 Dust2 13-11 | 18 Mirage 16-13 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-14 | Sashi | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 17 Cache 10-13 | 32 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-13 | INOX Division | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 31 Dust2 16-14 | 42 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | Color | 8 Inferno 13-7 | 21 Dust2 11-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Nemiga | 31 Dust2 13-16 | 12 Anubis 6-13 | 43 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | HEROIC | 19 Dust2 6-13 | 15 Inferno 5-13 | 34 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DENDELE | 20 Mirage 13-8 | 13 Cache 6-13 | 33 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 19 Mirage 13-9 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | Nuclear TigeRES | 21 Dust2 13-9 | 8 Inferno 2-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Color | 16 Cache 13-7 | 16 Cache 13-7 | 32 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-25 | Color | 11 Ancient 13-2 | 22 Dust2 13-11 | 33 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-24 | Color | 12 Ancient 13-8 | 21 Anubis 14-16 | 33 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-23 | Color | 33 Dust2 19-22 | 18 Mirage 8-13 | 51 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Color | 19 Dust2 13-4 | 10 Anubis 13-9 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
