KillsRisk
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.93
Hit
47.3%
EV+
-18.0%
Edge
-1.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.81
Hit
49.4%
EV+
-14.4%
Edge
-0.7
L10
60%
#214Ranked 214 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
buda
BESTIA vs paiN
RISK · UNDER 29
BEST UNDER · PP 29PP29UD28.5SL28.5
≈ L5 27.4 · L20 27.9Risk · Edge -1.1 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 29 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±8.81
Previous meeting · vs paiN
No meeting with paiN in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
28.4
6/11 hit at 29
Online · this match
27.3
7/9 hit at 29
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm buda is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.658 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
27.93
Raw edge
-1.1
Cons. hit
47.3%
EV+
-18.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.1
Line
29
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.3%
+4.1 →
Learned
51.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 27-31
All players · Kills
44.5%299 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.15) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.3 kills vs line 29.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 50%. Next: vs paiN, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 28.3 against a 29.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.93 vs line 29 → -1.07 (-3.7%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.1 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.95
HS/Map
6.97
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.62
ADR
72.4
KAST
68.1%
HS%
50%
Multi-kill
14.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)14.7 · KPR 0.66 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)13.4 · KPR 0.623 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.658
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.3
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.53%
Final projected kills28.15
paiN gives up (81 series)-3.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29. Model: 54.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~24 kills · 37r76.1%
Normal61.7%
~28 kills · 45r54.7%
Close maps8.3%
~30 kills · 47r46.7%
Overtime10%
~34 kills · 53r30.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 50% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Mirage
22.4r
+7% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.7r
+1% KPR here
Total
44.1r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29 (Under) · avg 28.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
29
Nearby lines
| 27 Under | 39.9% | below BE |
| 28 Under | 44.6% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 47.3% | OFFERED |
| 30 Under | 50% | below BE |
| 31 Under | 52.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29
Line movement
first 29→29no change
- First seen29Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
51.3%
K/D
0.89
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
50.4%
K/D
0.86
Cache
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
56%
K/D
0.87
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
19.7
KPR
0.83
HS%
44.1%
K/D
1.33
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.51
HS%
44.4%
K/D
0.7
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
6.5
KPR
0.34
HS%
61.5%
K/D
0.48
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 16 Ancient 13-9 | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 16 Dust2 13-7 | 19 Mirage 13-7 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 15 Dust2 7-13 | 17 Cache 13-5 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 8 Ancient 10-13 | 17 Mirage 10-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Cache 6-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 18 Cache 16-14 | 20 Mirage 19-16 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 18 Mirage 16-13 | 28 Inferno 22-19 | 46 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 5 Nuke 2-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 9 Ancient 13-7 | 15 Mirage 13-2 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 15 Inferno 13-3 | 14 Mirage 13-2 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 7 Mirage 4-13 | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 19 Cache 7-13 | 11 Ancient 4-13 | 30 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Imperial | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 19 Inferno 13-9 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | ALKA | 15 Cache 8-13 | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-09 | Isurus | 10 Cache 7-13 | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Yawara | 12 Mirage 8-13 | 16 Dust2 9-13 | 28 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-05 | Grêmio | 30 Inferno 13-6 | 17 Dust2 13-7 | 47 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-04 | METANOIA Wolves | 14 Dust2 13-8 | 13 Mirage 13-5 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | MIBR | 12 Cache 9-13 | 15 Inferno 8-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ |








































































































































































