KillsBetter playTake
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
36.9
Hit
63.1%
EV+
+9.2%
Edge
+4.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsLean
Line
18
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.99
Hit
61.9%
EV+
+7.2%
Edge
+2.0
L10
30%
#17Ranked 17 of 277 on the board

Rifler
Wicadia
Aurora vs G2
LEAN · OVER 18
BEST OVER · SL 17.5PP18UD18.5SL17.5
▲ L5 19.4 · L20 18.5
Hit rates at 18 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±2.56
Previous meeting · vs G2
1/1 hit · avg 20 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 13-7 · Inferno 16-19 · Split
20
Over 18 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
18.5
9/20 hit at 18
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Wicadia is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 19+ HS (~35 kills at 54.8% HS): 0.696 KPR over ~47 rounds. His Kills line is 32.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (25.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
19.99
Raw edge
+2.0
Cons. hit
61.9%
EV+
+7.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
47.2
Line
18
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61.9%
+7.8 →
Learned
69.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 16-20
All players · Headshots
57.7%149 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 78.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +2.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (20.24) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.2 headshots vs line 16.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.77, HS 55%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.2 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 19.99 vs line 18 → +1.99 (11.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47.2 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.88
HS/Map
9.25
K/D
1.19
KPR
0.77
ADR
81.9
KAST
71.2%
HS%
54.8%
Multi-kill
20.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)10.4 · KPR 0.784 · 24.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)9.8 · KPR 0.789 · 22.8r
Required KPR to clear0.696
Base kills (Maps 1-2)37.12
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.49%
Final projected kills36.94
× realistic HS% (54.8%)19.99
G2 gives up (86 series)-1.6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 18. Model: 78.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.1%
~17 HS · 40r32.9%
Normal39.9%
~20 HS · 47r61.4%
Close maps22.8%
~21 HS · 51r72.1%
Overtime12.2%
~24 HS · 57r86.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 60% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
24.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.8r
+2% KPR here
Total
47.2r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18 (Over) · avg 18.2 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
18
Nearby lines
| 16 Over | 67.2% | |
| 17 Over | 65.7% | |
| 18 Over | 61.9% | OFFERED |
| 19 Over | 56.2% | below BE |
| 20 Over | 47.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18
Line movement
first 16.5→18+1.5
- Moved up17.5 → 18Oct 25, 04:12 AM
- Back on board16.5 → 17.5Oct 25, 12:16 AM
- Pulled16.5Oct 25, 12:14 AM
- First seen16.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.77
HS%
47.2%
K/D
1.23
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.79
HS%
57.2%
K/D
1.21
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.79
HS%
52.5%
K/D
1.23
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.78
HS%
57.9%
K/D
1.23
Cache
5 maps
Kills
18.4
KPR
0.87
HS%
63%
K/D
1.33
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
10.2
KPR
0.59
HS%
53.7%
K/D
0.72
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | The MongolZ | 16 Inferno 16-12 | 7 Nuke 2-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-18 | Falcons | 9 Anubis 8-13 | 9 Dust2 19-17 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FURIA | 8 Dust2 8-13 | 9 Inferno 10-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | 9z | 9 Cache 13-11 | 9 Inferno 13-4 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 14 Cache 13-9 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | 9z | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 2 Nuke 1-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Spirit | 10 Mirage 13-9 | 11 Anubis 13-6 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitality | 11 Anubis 13-7 | 5 Cache 7-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | 1win | 11 Dust2 13-9 | 6 Anubis 13-8 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | FURIA | 8 Dust2 8-13 | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | BetBoom | 9 Mirage 13-4 | 4 Nuke 7-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Falcons | 7 Mirage 4-13 | 8 Dust2 10-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 9z | 11 Dust2 13-3 | 14 Mirage 13-11 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 4-13 | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Vitality | 9 Anubis 13-7 | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NRG | 17 Cache 13-7 | 5 Mirage 19-17 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | Natus Vincere | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | G2 | 9 Anubis 13-7 | 11 Inferno 16-19 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | M80 | 11 Dust2 13-3 | 6 Inferno 13-5 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | DENDELE | 13 Cache 13-7 | 6 Mirage 16-12 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































