KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.9
Hit
51.4%
EV+
-11.0%
Edge
+0.4
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.73
Hit
51.2%
EV+
-11.3%
Edge
+0.2
L10
50%

Rifler
finW
INOX Division vs Acend
RISK · OVER 15.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP15.5SL15.5
Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 15.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
3/6
L20
50%
3/6
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.06
Previous meeting · vs Acend
No meeting with Acend in his last 6 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
15.3
3/6 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm finW is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 62.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~28 kills at 56.8% HS): 0.583 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (38.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.73
Raw edge
+0.2
Cons. hit
51.2%
EV+
-11.3%
Rating
1.4/10
Exp. rounds
46.8
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.2%
-8.7 →
Learned
42.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
57.4%282 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 49.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Big enough sample: 6 recent series (need 8+)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 6 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.31) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 6 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.3 headshots vs line 15.0 (3/6 over). KPR 0.65, HS 57%. Next: vs Acend, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 15.3 against a 15.0 line
Biggest risk: 42% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 42% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Small sample (6 series)
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.73 vs line 15.5 → +0.23 (1.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 46.8 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 14.7%
Performance (last 12 maps)
Kills/Map
13.5
HS/Map
7.67
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.65
ADR
72
KAST
0%
HS%
56.8%
Multi-kill
15.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)8.7 · KPR 0.685 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Ancient)7.6 · KPR 0.561 · 24.1r
Required KPR to clear0.583
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.07
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.24%
Final projected kills28.71
× realistic HS% (56.8%)15.73
Acend gives up (32 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15.5. Model: 49.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps38.9%
~13 HS · 39r27.8%
Normal46.4%
~17 HS · 50r59.1%
Overtime14.7%
~19 HS · 56r73.8%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 60.5% · live
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 61% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Nuke
22.7r
+6% KPR here
M2 Ancient
24.1r
-13% KPR here
Total
46.8r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14%
Overtime14.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)38.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
6 series · line 15.5 (Over) · avg 15.3 · hit 3/6 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Over | 57.9% | |
| 14.5 Over | 54.8% | below BE |
| 15.5 Over | 51.2% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Over | 47.7% | below BE |
| 17.5 Over | 44.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15→15.5+0.5
- Moved up15 → 15.5Oct 25, 06:08 AM
- First seen15Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.71
HS%
59.7%
K/D
1.08
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.77
HS%
33.3%
K/D
1.42
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.43
HS%
63.6%
K/D
0.56
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
60.9%
K/D
1.35
Dust2
1 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.57
HS%
69.2%
K/D
0.76
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Inner Circle Prospect | 11 Ancient 19-17 | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | Vitality Academy | 3 Ancient 13-2 | 4 Inferno 13-3 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | VP.Prodigy | 8 Nuke 16-14 | 4 Anubis 13-1 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-09 | INFURITY | 5 Inferno 13-6 | 8 Nuke 13-6 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-03-26 | bankaPEPSI | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 10 Nuke 5-13 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-03-24 | NAVI Junior | 10 Anubis 13-5 | 10 Nuke 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |













































































































































































