KillsTake
Line
33.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
37.63
Hit
65.7%
EV+
+13.8%
Edge
+4.1
L10
90%
HeadshotsBetter playTake
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.62
Hit
66.2%
EV+
+14.7%
Edge
+3.1
L10
90%
AWPer
adeX
Alter Ego vs NEXVOID
TAKE · OVER 33.5
▲ L5 43.6 · L20 36.9
Hit rates at 33.5 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
90%
9/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±5.45
Previous meeting · vs NEXVOID
0/1 hit · avg 32 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-26 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: Asia - Cup 1
Dust2 13-7 · Inferno 5-13 · Split
32
Under 33.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
—
no series
Online
36.9
14/20 hit at 33.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm adeX is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 35
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
sleeper · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 34+ kills: 0.779 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.7%) or blowout (20%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
37.63
Raw edge
+4.1
Cons. hit
65.7%
EV+
+13.8%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
43
Line
33.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
65.7%
0 →
Learned
65.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 31.5-35.5
All players · Kills
55.7%131 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 77.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 90.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 43.0 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 20% (under 40%) · team 43% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 9/10 at this line · projection 3.3 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 40.9 kills vs line 33.5 (9/10 over). KPR 0.88, HS 36%. Next: vs NEXVOID, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 40.9 against a 33.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 37.63 vs line 33.5 → +4.13 (12.3%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 90% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 10 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
- • Expected 43 rounds · 2-0 51.7% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
18.45
HS/Map
6.67
K/D
1.34
KPR
0.88
ADR
91
KAST
74.4%
HS%
36.2%
Multi-kill
24.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)19.6 · KPR 0.872 · 22.5r
Map 2 (Ancient)18.1 · KPR 0.883 · 20.5r
Required KPR to clear0.779
Base kills (Maps 1-2)37.71
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.20%
Final projected kills37.63
NEXVOID gives up (24 series)+3.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 33.5. Model: 77.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~32 kills · 36r36.1%
Normal45%
~37 kills · 42r71.1%
Close maps25%
~40 kills · 46r85.2%
Overtime10%
~46 kills · 52r96.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 10 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 43% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
22.5r
+1% KPR here
M2 Ancient
20.5r
+2% KPR here
Total
43r
2-0 sweep51.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 33.5 (Over) · avg 40.9 · hit 9/10 · tap a bar
33.5
Nearby lines
| 31.5 Over | 67% | |
| 32.5 Over | 66.6% | |
| 33.5 Over | 65.7% | OFFERED |
| 34.5 Over | 64.7% | |
| 35.5 Over | 62.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 35
Line movement
first 33.5→offno change
- Pulled33.5Oct 25, 09:02 AM
- First seen33.5Oct 24, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
20.2
KPR
0.89
HS%
28.4%
K/D
1.36
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
18.3
KPR
0.9
HS%
42.3%
K/D
1.48
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
46.8%
K/D
1
Cache
4 maps
Kills
22
KPR
0.92
HS%
28.4%
K/D
1.4
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
19.7
KPR
0.94
HS%
30.5%
K/D
1.59
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.72
HS%
53.2%
K/D
1.34
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
35.4%
K/D
1.26
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.52
HS%
45.5%
K/D
0.69
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Lynn Vision | 27 Anubis 13-9 | 19 Inferno 11-13 | 46 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | Just Swing | 24 Cache 10-13 | 27 Dust2 19-15 | 51 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | Chinggis Warriors | 16 Inferno 13-9 | 22 Dust2 13-9 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | The KnockoutX | 18 Dust2 13-10 | 20 Cache 13-10 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitalem Aerem | 25 Ancient 16-14 | 20 Mirage 13-6 | 45 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-09 | The Huns | 15 Ancient 13-11 | 20 Cache 12-16 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Kaleido | 20 Ancient 13-3 | 23 Dust2 14-16 | 43 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-07 | Legion | 19 Dust2 13-2 | 14 Anubis 13-7 | 33 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Just Swing | 24 Cache 13-9 | 20 Dust2 11-13 | 44 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | The Huns | 20 Dust2 11-13 | 16 Ancient 13-7 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Nas | 18 Mirage 13-8 | 17 Dust2 13-3 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Kaleido | 17 Dust2 10-13 | 18 Ancient 13-4 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | NEXVOID | 18 Dust2 13-7 | 14 Inferno 5-13 | 32 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | QuantumX | 20 Ancient 13-1 | 21 Dust2 13-6 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | los kogutos | 21 Nuke 13-7 | 16 Ancient 13-6 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-02 | Wampirki | 15 Ancient 5-13 | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-30 | KOLESIE | 21 Mirage 10-13 | 11 Overpass 8-13 | 32 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-29 | Betclic | 21 Ancient 13-7 | 11 Nuke 11-13 | 32 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-28 | Project 91 | 15 Nuke 8-13 | 22 Ancient 13-9 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-27 | Gentle Mates | 7 Anubis 8-13 | 13 Ancient 10-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ |
