KillsRisk
Line
23.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.17
Hit
63.6%
EV+
+19.0%
Edge
+1.7
L10
80%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
11.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.34
Hit
64.3%
EV+
+20.3%
Edge
+1.8
L10
80%
Rifler · IGL
SHiNE
G2 Ares vs STATE
LEAN · OVER 11.5
▲ L5 15.0 · L20 13.1
Hit rates at 11.5 (Over)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
63%
12/19
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.11
Previous meeting · vs STATE
1/1 hit · avg 17 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-26 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown: Closed Qualifier
Ancient 9-13 · Cache 19-15 · Split
17
Over 11.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16
5/6 hit at 11.5
Online
11.8
7/13 hit at 11.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm SHiNE is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 12+ HS (~23 kills at 53% HS): 0.461 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (46%) or blowout (19.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.34
Raw edge
+1.8
Cons. hit
64.3%
EV+
+20.3%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
47.1
Line
11.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
64.3%
0 →
Learned
64.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 9.5-13.5
All players · Headshots
54%235 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 72.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.8 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 63.2% at this line
Game script fits · 47.1 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 20% (under 40%) · team 46% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 0.6 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.9 headshots vs line 11.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.59, HS 53%. Next: vs STATE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 13.9 against a 11.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
VALUE
- • Model 13.34 vs line 11.5 → +1.84 (16.0%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 80% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 47.1 rounds · 2-0 46% · OT 17.4%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
12.37
HS/Map
6.55
K/D
0.84
KPR
0.59
ADR
67.3
KAST
72.9%
HS%
53%
Multi-kill
15.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)6.4 · KPR 0.503 · 24r
Map 2 (Cache)6.9 · KPR 0.56 · 23.1r
Required KPR to clear0.461
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.03
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.56%
Final projected kills25.17
× realistic HS% (53%)13.34
STATE gives up (15 series)+3.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 11.5. Model: 72.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps19.7%
~11 HS · 40r44.5%
Normal48.1%
~13 HS · 46r63.9%
Close maps14.8%
~14 HS · 50r75.6%
Overtime17.4%
~16 HS · 56r86.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 8:00 AM CTLANHotspawn 10k Showdown
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 46% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
24r
-12% KPR here
M2 Cache
23.1r
-2% KPR here
Total
47.1r
2-0 sweep46%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)32.2%
Overtime17.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)19.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11.5 (Over) · avg 13.9 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
11.5
Nearby lines
| 9.5 Over | 67% | |
| 10.5 Over | 66% | |
| 11.5 Over | 64.3% | OFFERED |
| 12.5 Over | 59.6% | |
| 13.5 Over | 51.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 11.5
Line movement
first 11.5→offno change
- Pulled11.5Oct 24, 10:51 PM
- First seen11.5Oct 24, 10:45 PM
Map stats
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.5
HS%
50.5%
K/D
0.73
Cache
8 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.58
HS%
56.3%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.67
HS%
48.7%
K/D
1.09
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.6
HS%
58.5%
K/D
0.86
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.53
HS%
60%
K/D
0.74
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
8.8
KPR
0.48
HS%
45.7%
K/D
0.59
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | overTIME | 7 Anubis 13-9 | 11 Cache 13-6 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-24 | The Last Resort | 8 Inferno 4-13 | 8 Anubis 13-6 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | Illyrians | 8 Ancient 13-7 | 8 Mirage 10-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | mellren | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 4 Ancient 14-16 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | ex-6666 | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 4 Dust2 2-13 | 12 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | BAKS | 2 Cache 3-13 | 6 Inferno 16-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-14 | The Last Resort | 3 Ancient 10-13 | 11 Inferno 13-8 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Sangal | 10 Anubis 13-16 | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-09 | NAVI Junior | 5 Anubis 11-13 | 5 Cache 13-5 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | INFINITE | 4 Inferno 13-7 | 10 Ancient 16-14 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | RBLS | 8 Anubis 2-13 | 12 Cache 16-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | Famalicão | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 6 Ancient 13-4 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | STATE | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 13 Cache 19-15 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | The Last Resort | 9 Inferno 13-11 | 6 Cache 13-8 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | NAVI Junior | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Ancient 16-12 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | INOX Division | 3 Ancient 5-13 | 3 Dust2 6-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 5 Inferno 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 6 Cache 13-10 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | QUAZAR | 6 Inferno 13-7 | 3 Cache 6-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ |
