KillsRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.33
Hit
48.1%
EV+
-16.8%
Edge
-1.7
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
17.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.94
Hit
54.1%
EV+
-6.2%
Edge
-1.6
L10
70%
#208Ranked 208 of 277 on the board

Rifler
flameZ
Vitality vs The MongolZ
RISK · UNDER 30
BEST UNDER · UD 31.5PP30UD31.5SL30.5
▲ L5 32.6 · L20 28.1Risk · Edge -1.7 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 30 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
75%
15/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.51
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
No meeting with The MongolZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.1
15/20 hit at 30
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm flameZ is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 80.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.794 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.33
Raw edge
-1.7
Cons. hit
48.1%
EV+
-16.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
37.8
Line
30
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.1%
-8.6 →
Learned
39.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28-32
All players · Kills
44.1%270 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 75.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.5) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.2 kills vs line 30.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 58%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.2 against a 30.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.33 vs line 30 → -1.67 (-5.6%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 60% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 37.8 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.05
HS/Map
8.12
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.74
ADR
76.8
KAST
75.6%
HS%
57.8%
Multi-kill
19.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)12.3 · KPR 0.654 · 19.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)14.2 · KPR 0.777 · 18.7r
Required KPR to clear0.794
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.02
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.91%
Final projected kills26.5
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-1.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30. Model: 64.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.6%
~24 kills · 32r87.1%
Normal39.7%
~30 kills · 40r48.1%
Close maps18.9%
~30 kills · 40r45.5%
Overtime7.8%
~35 kills · 46r19.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 80.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Anubis
19.1r
-18% KPR here
M2 Dust2
18.7r
-2% KPR here
Total
37.8r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Under) · avg 29.2 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Under | 33.6% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 42.9% | below BE |
| 30 Under | 48.1% | OFFERED |
| 31 Under | 52.8% | below BE |
| 32 Under | 58.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 30→30no change
- First seen30Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.71
HS%
59.1%
K/D
1.13
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.56
HS%
64.1%
K/D
0.79
Cache
8 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
55.6%
K/D
1.17
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
57.6%
K/D
0.89
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.65
HS%
58.7%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.78
HS%
49.2%
K/D
1.41
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 9z | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 22 Cache 13-10 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | MOUZ | 13 Cache 13-8 | 18 Inferno 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Aurora | 9 Anubis 7-13 | 18 Cache 13-7 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PARIVISION | 19 Inferno 13-2 | 14 Dust2 13-10 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Falcons | 12 Anubis 9-13 | 23 Dust2 13-4 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Natus Vincere | 11 Anubis 13-5 | 13 Nuke 5-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 1win | 14 Dust2 13-1 | 14 Cache 13-5 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Aurora | 9 Anubis 13-4 | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | FURIA | 14 Cache 13-5 | 13 Anubis 13-8 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Aurora | 13 Anubis 7-13 | 15 Inferno 13-11 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | FURIA | 14 Mirage 13-8 | 15 Dust2 13-5 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | magic | 16 Mirage 13-6 | 7 Dust2 13-9 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | MOUZ | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 8 Mirage 7-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-04 | FURIA | 12 Nuke 6-13 | 9 Cache 13-11 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FUT | 7 Anubis 13-7 | 15 Dust2 13-8 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Legacy | 14 Nuke 16-14 | 13 Mirage 9-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | 9z | 12 Dust2 13-2 | 15 Nuke 13-6 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Inner Circle | 9 Anubis 8-13 | 20 Cache 13-16 | 29 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Spirit | 20 Anubis 11-13 | 21 Nuke 16-14 | 41 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | FaZe | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 16 Cache 13-6 | 28 | W | Under ✓ |








































































































































































