KillsNeutral
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
22.33
Hit
54.3%
EV+
-6.0%
Edge
-3.2
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playTake
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.97
Hit
59.5%
EV+
+3.0%
Edge
-2.5
L10
60%
Rifler
Moseyuh
TYLOO vs 9z
NEUTRAL · UNDER 25.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP25.5UD25.5
≈ L5 22.4 · L20 23.3LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 25.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
8/16
H2H
0%
0/2
Volatility
Medium
±6.58
Previous meeting · vs 9z
0/2 hit · avg 27.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-04 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Nuke 10-13 · Mirage 2-13 · L
27
Over 25.5 ✗
2026-07-09 · XSE Pro League 2026
Nuke 9-13 · Mirage 13-7 · Split
28
Over 25.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
22.5
6/11 hit at 25.5
Online
24.8
2/5 hit at 25.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Moseyuh is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 25.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Neutral
What to watch · Stays under with 25 kills or fewer: below 0.684 KPR over ~37 rounds. Main danger: overtime (1.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
22.33
Raw edge
-3.2
Cons. hit
54.3%
EV+
-6.0%
Rating
5.3/10
Exp. rounds
37.3
Line
25.5
Verdict
Neutral
Plain model
54.3%
0 →
Learned
54.3%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
43.3%323 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Warning: Moseyuh is 0-2 with us at this line (±2). Being backtested before he's kept out of Top 3 and slips.
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 1% (under 22%) · 37.3 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 26% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.1 kills vs line 25.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.56, HS 58%. Next: vs 9z, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 22.1 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: Short maps lately — 19.6 rounds per map for these teams
- Short maps lately — 19.6 rounds per map for these teams
- 34% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 22.33 vs line 25.5 → -3.17 (-12.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 37.3 rounds · 2-0 64.2% · OT 1.4%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
11.62
HS/Map
6.75
K/D
0.91
KPR
0.56
ADR
62.4
KAST
72%
HS%
58.1%
Multi-kill
12.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)11.1 · KPR 0.628 · 18.1r
Map 2 (Ancient)11.2 · KPR 0.599 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.684
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.88
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.41%
Final projected kills22.33
9z gives up (77 series)-2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 25.5. Model: 68.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.7%
~19 kills · 32r87.5%
Normal47.3%
~25 kills · 41r58.5%
Close maps10.6%
~24 kills · 41r59.9%
Overtime1.4%
~28 kills · 47r37.6%
Match context
Oct 26, 6:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 25.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 26% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Mirage
18.1r
+17% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.2r
+12% KPR here
Total
37.3r
2-0 sweep64.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)12%
Overtime1.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + 2 past meetings + market. Rounds & blowout from 32 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 4 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Under) · avg 22.1 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Under | 45.8% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 49.2% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 54.3% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Under | 58.6% | |
| 27.5 Under | 61.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 25.5→25.5no change
- First seen25.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.68
HS%
61%
K/D
1.04
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
51.7%
K/D
1.11
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
7.3
KPR
0.35
HS%
45.5%
K/D
0.52
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.68
HS%
69.9%
K/D
0.97
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
7
KPR
0.39
HS%
50%
K/D
0.48
Cache
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
58.6%
K/D
1.21
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Spirit | 6 Mirage 5-13 | 4 Anubis 3-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | FUT | 13 Nuke 9-13 | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | M80 | 16 Mirage 13-10 | 13 Cache 7-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 9z | 25 Nuke 10-13 | 2 Mirage 2-13 | 27 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Falcons | 11 Mirage 11-13 | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Alliance | 4 Inferno 11-13 | 16 Ancient 11-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | GamerLegion | 18 Ancient 13-7 | 13 Mirage 13-6 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | PARIVISION | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 5 Ancient 4-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DEPO | 10 Mirage 13-2 | 10 Inferno 13-2 | 20 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 16 Mirage 13-5 | 10 Inferno 13-9 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Lynn Vision | 12 Nuke 8-13 | 5 Inferno 4-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-12 | Lynn Vision | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 8 Inferno 10-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | The Huns | 13 Ancient 13-9 | 16 Mirage 13-2 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | The MongolZ Academy | 10 Ancient 13-3 | 16 Mirage 13-1 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-09 | 9z | 11 Nuke 9-13 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-03 | EYEBALLERS | 12 Nuke 13-6 | 16 Cache 13-7 | 28 | W | Over ✗ |
