KillsLean
Line
29
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.39
Hit
61.8%
EV+
+7.1%
Edge
+4.4
L10
50%
HeadshotsLean
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
21.12
Hit
61.9%
EV+
+7.1%
Edge
+3.6
L10
50%
#19Ranked 19 of 277 on the board

Rifler
oz1k
Color vs ex-Zero Tenacity
LEAN · OVER 29
BEST OVER · PP 29PP29SL29.5
▲ L5 33.0 · L20 30.6
Hit rates at 29 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.28
Previous meeting · vs ex-Zero Tenacity
No meeting with ex-Zero Tenacity in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
30.6
10/20 hit at 29
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm oz1k is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 48.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.589 KPR over ~49 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (18.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
33.39
Raw edge
+4.4
Cons. hit
61.8%
EV+
+7.1%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
49.2
Line
29
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61.8%
-8.5 →
Learned
53.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 27-31
All players · Kills
55.5%299 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 72.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (33.55) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.2 kills vs line 29.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 63%. Next: vs ex-Zero Tenacity, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 31.2 against a 29.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 33.39 vs line 29 → +4.39 (15.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 49.2 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.3
HS/Map
9.57
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.69
ADR
76.3
KAST
75.8%
HS%
62.6%
Multi-kill
17.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)17 · KPR 0.681 · 24.8r
Map 2 (Mirage)16.6 · KPR 0.677 · 24.4r
Required KPR to clear0.589
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.41
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.43%
Final projected kills33.55
ex-Zero Tenacity gives up (62 series)-2.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29. Model: 72.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps18.4%
~28 kills · 41r38.6%
Normal50.8%
~33 kills · 48r67.9%
Close maps14.1%
~36 kills · 53r83%
Overtime16.7%
~40 kills · 59r93.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 48.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 48% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24.8r
-1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
24.4r
-1% KPR here
Total
49.2r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)18.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29 (Over) · avg 31.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
29
Nearby lines
| 27 Over | 64.9% | |
| 28 Over | 63.2% | |
| 29 Over | 61.8% | OFFERED |
| 30 Over | 60% | |
| 31 Over | 57.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 29→29no change
- First seen29Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Dust2
14 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
64.5%
K/D
1
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
63.8%
K/D
0.98
Cache
6 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.6
HS%
55.7%
K/D
0.9
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.68
HS%
64.5%
K/D
1.09
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.77
HS%
64.1%
K/D
1.16
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.71
HS%
53.7%
K/D
1.11
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Nemiga | 7 Cache 5-13 | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | WW | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 19 Mirage 16-14 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-20 | UPGRADE | 21 Anubis 16-14 | 23 Mirage 13-10 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | SPARTA | 18 Dust2 13-11 | 19 Mirage 16-13 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-14 | Sashi | 17 Dust2 13-6 | 17 Cache 10-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-13 | INOX Division | 17 Inferno 13-4 | 24 Dust2 16-14 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | SPARTA | 15 Inferno 13-7 | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Nemiga | 20 Dust2 13-16 | 12 Anubis 6-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | HEROIC | 13 Dust2 6-13 | 12 Inferno 5-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DENDELE | 10 Mirage 13-8 | 13 Cache 6-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | B8 | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 21 Mirage 13-9 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | Nuclear TigeRES | 24 Dust2 13-9 | 9 Inferno 2-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | HYPERSPIRIT | 11 Cache 13-7 | 11 Cache 13-7 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-25 | Butterfly | 8 Ancient 13-2 | 14 Dust2 13-11 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-24 | EAC | 20 Ancient 13-8 | 30 Anubis 14-16 | 50 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-23 | SPARTA | 31 Dust2 19-22 | 6 Mirage 8-13 | 37 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Inner Circle Academy | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 15 Anubis 13-9 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | SPARTA | 18 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Cache 4-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Metizport | 14 Mirage 11-13 | 9 Inferno 13-8 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-19 | EAC | 13 Ancient 9-13 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































