KillsBetter playRisk
Line
26
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.8
Hit
57.8%
EV+
+0.1%
Edge
+1.8
L10
10%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.64
Hit
53.4%
EV+
-7.6%
Edge
+0.1
L10
10%
Rifler
zont1x
Team Spirit vs FURIA
RISK · OVER 26
BEST OVER · UD 24.5PP26UD24.5
▼ L5 22.4 · L20 24.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 26 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
25%
5/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±3.29
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
0/1 hit · avg 25 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 13-10 · Cache 13-5 · W
25
Under 26 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24.6
5/20 hit at 26
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm zont1x is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 64.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.588 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.3%) or blowout (25.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
27.8
Raw edge
+1.8
Cons. hit
57.8%
EV+
+0.1%
Rating
4.2/10
Exp. rounds
44.2
Line
26
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
57.8%
0 →
Learned
57.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 24-28
All players · Kills
56.5%246 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 10.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 25.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 44.2 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 26% (under 40%) · team 65% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 23.3 kills vs line 26.0 (1/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 40%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 23.3 against a 26.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 27.8 vs line 26 → +1.8 (6.9%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 10% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches)
- • Expected 44.2 rounds · 2-0 56.3% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.28
HS/Map
4.92
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.57
ADR
66.4
KAST
70.1%
HS%
40.1%
Multi-kill
13.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)11.4 · KPR 0.536 · 21.5r
Map 2 (Mirage)14.3 · KPR 0.635 · 22.7r
Required KPR to clear0.588
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.94
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.11%
Final projected kills25.65
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26. Model: 56% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.9%
~23 kills · 37r25.6%
Normal43.3%
~29 kills · 46r63.8%
Close maps25.2%
~30 kills · 47r71.2%
Overtime5.6%
~34 kills · 53r88.5%
Match context
Oct 26, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 64.5% · live
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches)
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 65% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
21.5r
-5% KPR here
M2 Mirage
22.7r
+12% KPR here
Total
44.2r
2-0 sweep56.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26 (Over) · avg 23.3 · hit 1/10 · tap a bar
26
Nearby lines
| 24 Over | 65.3% | |
| 25 Over | 62% | |
| 26 Over | 57.8% | OFFERED |
| 27 Over | 53% | below BE |
| 28 Over | 48% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26
Line movement
first 26→26no change
- First seen26Oct 26, 03:14 AM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.53
HS%
42.6%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.66
HS%
36.4%
K/D
1
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.58
HS%
39.6%
K/D
0.94
Cache
7 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.54
HS%
43%
K/D
0.88
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.55
HS%
39.4%
K/D
0.8
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.57
HS%
39.5%
K/D
0.88
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | TYLOO | 16 Mirage 13-5 | 11 Anubis 13-3 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | BetBoom | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 3 Ancient 3-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 15 Mirage 9-13 | 8 Anubis 6-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 15 Mirage 13-5 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Anubis 13-10 | 19 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 13 Cache 13-10 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 5 Cache 5-13 | 21 Anubis 9-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 17 Mirage 11-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 9 Ancient 11-13 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Nuke 13-11 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Mirage 11-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 12 Nuke 13-8 | 20 Ancient 13-11 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 12 Ancient 13-10 | 13 Cache 13-5 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 9 Cache 13-9 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Cache 13-7 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 15 Cache 10-13 | 17 Anubis 16-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 16 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Ancient 13-9 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 13-11 | 18 Nuke 14-16 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 5 Dust2 13-9 | 15 Mirage 13-9 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 14 Cache 9-13 | 11 Dust2 13-10 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ |
