KillsBetter playRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.8
Hit
49.6%
EV+
-14.0%
Edge
-0.7
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.45
Hit
43.7%
EV+
-24.3%
Edge
-0.1
L10
50%
#246Ranked 246 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
Brilliance
ex-RUSTEC vs FORZE Reload
RISK · UNDER 14.5
BEST UNDER · UD 15.5PP14.5UD15.5
▲ L5 15.8 · L20 13.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
67%
10/15
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.41
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
No meeting with FORZE Reload in his last 15 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
13.3
10/15 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Brilliance is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~27 kills at 56.1% HS): below 0.581 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.9%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.45
Raw edge
-0.1
Cons. hit
43.7%
EV+
-24.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.5
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43.7%
+8.4 →
Learned
52.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
38.3%261 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 15 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 66.7% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 13% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.87) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.6 headshots vs line 14.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.55, HS 56%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 14.6 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.45 vs line 14.5 → -0.05 (-0.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44.5 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 12.9%
Performance (last 30 maps)
Kills/Map
11.83
HS/Map
6.63
K/D
0.74
KPR
0.55
ADR
64.8
KAST
69%
HS%
56.1%
Multi-kill
12.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)7.2 · KPR 0.585 · 22.1r
Map 2 (Nuke)6.7 · KPR 0.537 · 22.4r
Required KPR to clear0.581
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.96
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.95%
Final projected kills24.72
× realistic HS% (56.1%)14.45
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-2.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 50.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.8%
~12 HS · 37r74.7%
Normal52%
~15 HS · 45r51%
Close maps10.3%
~16 HS · 48r43%
Overtime12.9%
~17 HS · 54r26.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 44% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Dust2
22.1r
+6% KPR here
M2 Nuke
22.4r
-3% KPR here
Total
44.5r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.2%
Overtime12.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 14.6 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 29.8% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 36.6% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 43.7% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 52.7% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 57.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- First seen14.5Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.6
HS%
58.9%
K/D
0.84
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.53
HS%
60%
K/D
0.7
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.5
HS%
52%
K/D
0.68
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.53
HS%
42.9%
K/D
0.65
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
8.7
KPR
0.45
HS%
57.7%
K/D
0.62
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.47
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.65
Cache
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
1
HS%
68.8%
K/D
2.29
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Saint Sinners | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 6 Nuke 13-6 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | mellren | 10 Nuke 13-11 | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Metizport | 8 Anubis 7-13 | 5 Nuke 9-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Illyrians | 5 Anubis 13-6 | 9 Ancient 13-7 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Butterfly | 15 Dust2 16-13 | 10 Nuke 11-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | Saint Sinners | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | mellren | 1 Ancient 8-13 | 11 Cache 13-3 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Iberian Soul | 3 Nuke 7-13 | 5 Mirage 17-19 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | Butterfly | 7 Dust2 9-13 | 8 Inferno 13-10 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Enjoy | 6 Mirage 9-13 | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-30 | BERG | 4 Inferno 13-11 | 7 Nuke 16-14 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | Nexus | 7 Dust2 14-16 | 6 Ancient 5-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | Black Phoenix | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 2 Anubis 6-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Iberian Soul | 3 Ancient 13-5 | 6 Mirage 13-4 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | ENCE | 9 Dust2 13-1 | 4 Mirage 13-4 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































