KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.37
Hit
51.6%
EV+
-10.7%
Edge
+0.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
8.69
Hit
43.8%
EV+
-24.1%
Edge
-0.8
L10
50%

AWPer
khaN
Nemiga vs BetBoom
RISK · OVER 28
BEST OVER · PP 28PP28UD29.5
≈ L5 33.0 · L20 31.8Risk · Edge +0.4 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 28 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±8.58
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
33.6
3/5 hit at 28
Online
31.1
9/15 hit at 28
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm khaN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: 0.678 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (23.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.37
Raw edge
+0.4
Cons. hit
51.6%
EV+
-10.7%
Rating
1.2/10
Exp. rounds
41.3
Line
28
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.6%
+8.6 →
Learned
60.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 26-30
All players · Kills
54.4%285 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Near the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.38) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.0 kills vs line 28.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 28%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 33.0 against a 28.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.37 vs line 28 → +0.37 (1.3%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.3 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.88
HS/Map
4.47
K/D
1.17
KPR
0.68
ADR
67.6
KAST
74.8%
HS%
28.2%
Multi-kill
16.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)13.1 · KPR 0.68 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)13.3 · KPR 0.6 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.678
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.3
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.30%
Final projected kills26.38
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 28. Model: 51.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.5%
~24 kills · 35r24.3%
Normal54%
~28 kills · 41r45%
Close maps3.6%
~30 kills · 44r56.5%
Overtime18.9%
~35 kills · 50r74.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Cache
19.2r
+6% KPR here
M2 Ancient
22.1r
-7% KPR here
Total
41.3r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28 (Over) · avg 33.0 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
28
Nearby lines
| 26 Over | 58.4% | |
| 27 Over | 56.1% | below BE |
| 28 Over | 51.6% | OFFERED |
| 29 Over | 46.8% | below BE |
| 30 Over | 42% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28
Line movement
first 28→28no change
- First seen28Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.74
HS%
28.2%
K/D
1.34
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
19.4
KPR
0.72
HS%
21.9%
K/D
1.16
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
31.4%
K/D
0.99
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
29.4%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.88
HS%
32.9%
K/D
1.46
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.58
HS%
30.6%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Legacy | 37 Ancient 25-23 | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 49 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 10 Cache 7-13 | 14 Nuke 16-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 13 Dust2 13-4 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 16 Ancient 13-10 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 18 Cache 13-11 | 20 Dust2 16-13 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 14 Cache 13-6 | 12 Ancient 13-8 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 21 Mirage 16-12 | 8 Ancient 13-11 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 20 Anubis 13-10 | 12 Nuke 13-6 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 18 Dust2 13-6 | 30 Mirage 22-20 | 48 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 15 Cache 13-5 | 15 Dust2 9-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 18 Cache 13-9 | 17 Dust2 9-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 8 Nuke 13-2 | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 14 Cache 13-6 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 17 Mirage 16-14 | 15 Nuke 13-8 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 16 Cache 13-10 | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 17 Ancient 13-6 | 7 Cache 13-3 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 24 Anubis 10-13 | 19 Mirage 13-9 | 43 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 3 Ancient 3-13 | 19 Cache 13-4 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 14 Dust2 16-13 | 14 Anubis 13-6 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 26 Mirage 16-14 | 12 Ancient 13-3 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |








































































































































































