KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.73
Hit
50.3%
EV+
-6.0%
Edge
+0.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.29
Hit
54%
EV+
+1.0%
Edge
+0.8
L10
50%
Rifler
hfah
Brute vs Metizport
RISK · OVER 15.5
UD15.5
▲ L5 19.2 · L20 16.2Risk · Edge +0.8 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 15.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.04
Previous meeting · vs Metizport
No meeting with Metizport in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
15.9
7/13 hit at 15.5
Online · this match
16.7
4/7 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm hfah is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 40.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~25 kills at 63.3% HS): 0.589 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.2%) or blowout (31.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.29
Raw edge
+0.8
Cons. hit
54%
EV+
+1.0%
Rating
4.5/10
Exp. rounds
41.6
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54%
0 →
Learned
54%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
56.8%435 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.8 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 41.6 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 32% (under 40%) · team 41% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.1 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.4 headshots vs line 15.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 63%. Next: vs Metizport, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 16.4 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 16.29 vs line 15.5 → +0.79 (5.1%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 10 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
- • Expected 41.6 rounds · 2-0 54.2% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.8
HS/Map
8.1
K/D
0.95
KPR
0.6
ADR
66.5
KAST
73.3%
HS%
63.3%
Multi-kill
10.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)9 · KPR 0.655 · 21.9r
Map 2 (Mirage)7.3 · KPR 0.595 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.589
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.08
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.35%
Final projected kills25.73
× realistic HS% (63.3%)16.29
Metizport gives up (40 series)-6.6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15.5. Model: 56.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps31.7%
~14 HS · 35r31.6%
Normal50%
~17 HS · 44r62.3%
Close maps12.7%
~17 HS · 45r63.6%
Overtime5.6%
~20 HS · 51r79.2%
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 AM CTOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 40.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 10 real matches) · kill rate −2% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 41% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Anubis
21.9r
+10% KPR here
M2 Mirage
19.7r
Total
41.6r
2-0 sweep54.2%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 0 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Over) · avg 16.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Over | 63.2% | |
| 14.5 Over | 58% | |
| 15.5 Over | 54% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Over | 47.3% | below BE |
| 17.5 Over | 42.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→15.5no change
- First seen15.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.6
HS%
57.7%
K/D
0.9
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.69
HS%
66.9%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.58
HS%
66%
K/D
0.9
Cache
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.63
HS%
62.2%
K/D
0.99
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.64
HS%
65.3%
K/D
0.82
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.55
HS%
60.6%
K/D
0.87
Inferno
1 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.61
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | overTIME | 10 Anubis 9-13 | 10 Cache 6-13 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-24 | STATE | 7 Anubis 3-13 | 5 Nuke 1-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | los kogutos | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-17 | los kogutos | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 10 Cache 13-4 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | BRUTE | 8 Anubis 10-13 | 8 Mirage 10-13 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | BRUTE | 6 Mirage 13-1 | 8 Dust2 13-5 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 4 Mirage 6-13 | 10 Dust2 13-9 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | BRUTE | 8 Inferno 10-13 | 10 Cache 16-12 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | BRUTE | 4 Dust2 13-10 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BRUTE | 5 Mirage 11-13 | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | BRUTE | 12 Anubis 16-14 | 7 Mirage 13-8 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | BRUTE | 3 Ancient 6-13 | 9 Cache 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Anubis 13-8 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | Nexus | 7 Cache 7-13 | 13 Anubis 9-13 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | eSuba | 9 Anubis 13-8 | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | BRUTE | 8 Mirage 13-4 | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 6 Mirage 3-13 | 6 Nuke 3-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | Acend | 6 Dust2 5-13 | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 5 Cache 13-9 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-28 | ASTRAL | 9 Anubis 13-7 | 7 Nuke 10-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ |
