KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.57
Hit
49.4%
EV+
-14.4%
Edge
+1.1
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.05
Hit
52.3%
EV+
-9.4%
Edge
+0.6
L10
40%
#179Ranked 179 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
biguzera
paiN vs BESTIA
RISK · OVER 30.5
BEST OVER · UD 28.5PP30.5UD28.5
▲ L5 33.2 · L20 28.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 30.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±8.9
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
No meeting with BESTIA in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.7
5/16 hit at 30.5
Online
27.3
2/4 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm biguzera is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.664 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (61%) or blowout (24.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.57
Raw edge
+1.1
Cons. hit
49.4%
EV+
-14.4%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.9
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.4%
+8.7 →
Learned
58.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
55.2%286 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 61% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.87) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.0 kills vs line 31.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 54%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.0 against a 31.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.57 vs line 30.5 → +1.07 (3.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.9 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.2
HS/Map
7.65
K/D
1
KPR
0.69
ADR
78.1
KAST
74%
HS%
53.9%
Multi-kill
17.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)15 · KPR 0.671 · 22.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.9 · KPR 0.683 · 23.4r
Required KPR to clear0.664
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.08
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.66%
Final projected kills30.87
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+5.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30.5. Model: 54.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~27 kills · 39r28%
Normal44.8%
~32 kills · 46r53.1%
Close maps18.6%
~34 kills · 49r63%
Overtime12.2%
~38 kills · 55r79.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 07:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 48.0% · Polymarket 52.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Cache
22.5r
-2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
23.4r
-1% KPR here
Total
45.9r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Over) · avg 30.0 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Over | 58% | |
| 29.5 Over | 52.1% | below BE |
| 30.5 Over | 49.4% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Over | 46.7% | below BE |
| 32.5 Over | 44% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 31→30.5-0.5
- Moved down31 → 30.5Oct 25, 02:40 AM
- Moved up30.5 → 31Oct 25, 02:40 AM
- Moved down31 → 30.5Oct 25, 02:39 AM
- Moved up30.5 → 31Oct 25, 02:38 AM
- Moved down31 → 30.5Oct 25, 02:38 AM
- First seen31Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
50.4%
K/D
1
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
58.1%
K/D
1.17
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.52
HS%
51.2%
K/D
0.73
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
61%
K/D
1.15
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.78
HS%
51.7%
K/D
1.23
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.52
HS%
45.8%
K/D
0.75
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Galorys | 15 Cache 13-8 | 38 Dust2 22-18 | 53 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | Imperial | 5 Inferno 3-13 | 24 Anubis 16-14 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 16 Cache 7-13 | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 7 Inferno 2-13 | 15 Dust2 13-7 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Imperial | 11 Anubis 4-13 | 23 Cache 11-13 | 34 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Galorys | 14 Cache 13-9 | 10 Dust2 13-5 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 6 Cache 13-7 | 14 Dust2 13-3 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Turma do Pagode | 15 Anubis 13-10 | 14 Dust2 13-10 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | Fluxo | 14 Anubis 10-13 | 12 Mirage 13-10 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 23 Anubis 13-6 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | BIG | 9 Dust2 6-13 | 11 Cache 8-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | HOTU | 17 Cache 11-13 | 15 Nuke 4-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Natus Vincere | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 18 Mirage 11-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | FURIA | 4 Mirage 2-13 | 10 Cache 6-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | The MongolZ | 21 Nuke 10-13 | 13 Inferno 4-13 | 34 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Wildcard | 12 Inferno 12-16 | 14 Nuke 13-3 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-31 | Astralis | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 28 Inferno 17-19 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 17 Nuke 13-6 | 14 Mirage 16-14 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-23 | Gentle Mates | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 15 Nuke 13-6 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-16 | 3DMAX | 17 Cache 10-13 | 4 Inferno 4-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































