KillsRisk
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.08
Hit
50.1%
EV+
-13.3%
Edge
-1.9
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.24
Hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.1%
Edge
-1.3
L10
70%
Rifler
damyo
Off Chops vs Ground Zero
RISK · UNDER 29
▼ L5 27.0 · L20 29.1Risk · Edge -1.9 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 29 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Low
±4.4
Previous meeting · vs Ground Zero
2/2 hit · avg 23.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 13-6 · Anubis 11-13 · Split
22
Under 29 ✓
2026-03-26 · ESL Challenger League Season 51: Oceania - Cup 2
Dust2 4-13 · Inferno 13-4 · Split
25
Under 29 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27
3/5 hit at 29
Online
29.8
6/15 hit at 29
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm damyo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 74.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.744 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
27.08
Raw edge
-1.9
Cons. hit
50.1%
EV+
-13.3%
Rating
2.7/10
Exp. rounds
39
Line
29
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.1%
0 →
Learned
50.1%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 27-31
All players · Kills
44.9%452 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 74% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 10% (under 22%) · 39.0 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 74% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 1.1 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 26.0 kills vs line 29.0 (2/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 53%. Next: vs Ground Zero, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 26.0 against a 29.0 line
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.08 vs line 29 → -1.92 (-6.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 39 rounds · 2-0 61.3% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.55
HS/Map
7.65
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.62
ADR
67.8
KAST
74.1%
HS%
52.6%
Multi-kill
14.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)15 · KPR 0.743 · 20.5r
Map 2 (Inferno)12 · KPR 0.658 · 18.5r
Required KPR to clear0.744
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.4
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.18%
Final projected kills27.08
Ground Zero gives up (5 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29. Model: 66.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps36.1%
~23 kills · 33r87.8%
Normal33.1%
~29 kills · 42r49.3%
Close maps20.8%
~29 kills · 42r47.9%
Overtime10%
~33 kills · 48r21.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 74.0%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 74% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Nuke
20.5r
+16% KPR here
M2 Inferno
18.5r
+3% KPR here
Total
39r
2-0 sweep61.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)36.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29 (Under) · avg 26.0 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
29
Nearby lines
| 27 Under | 37.5% | below BE |
| 28 Under | 44.9% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 50.1% | OFFERED |
| 30 Under | 58.1% | |
| 31 Under | 61% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29
Line movement
first 29→offno change
- Pulled29Oct 25, 10:14 PM
- First seen29Oct 24, 01:46 PM
Map stats
Nuke
10 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.75
HS%
51.5%
K/D
1.15
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.65
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1.05
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.63
HS%
55.8%
K/D
0.8
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.57
HS%
47.8%
K/D
0.84
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.81
HS%
56.9%
K/D
1.24
Cache
3 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.88
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.5
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
48.1%
K/D
1.23
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | NEXVOID | 18 Dust2 17-19 | 11 Inferno 9-13 | 29 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Rooster | 22 Nuke 13-7 | 11 Cache 13-2 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 14 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Inferno 13-3 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ground Zero | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 10 Anubis 11-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | FlyQuest | 15 Dust2 10-13 | 12 Inferno 16-19 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-13 | Fruju | 15 Inferno 13-3 | 14 Cache 13-6 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Rooster | 13 Anubis 13-6 | 7 Nuke 11-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Rooster | 7 Anubis 8-13 | 14 Nuke 3-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Mindfreak | 15 Nuke 13-9 | 17 Cache 13-1 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Arcade | 13 Nuke 13-7 | 10 Inferno 3-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Rooster | 17 Dust2 12-16 | 22 Mirage 13-11 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-28 | Rooster | 10 Anubis 4-13 | 31 Nuke 15-19 | 41 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-26 | Rooster | 13 Inferno 13-2 | 12 Anubis 13-4 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-04-19 | Rooster | 14 Overpass 9-13 | 16 Nuke 13-5 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-19 | Ding Cuts | 19 Mirage 13-10 | 21 Nuke 13-10 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-04-18 | Abyssal | 15 Inferno 13-6 | 20 Mirage 13-8 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-04-18 | Abyssal | 13 Overpass 7-13 | 12 Nuke 8-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-03-26 | Ground Zero | 10 Dust2 4-13 | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-03-25 | SemperFi | 18 Dust2 10-13 | 11 Mirage 8-13 | 29 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-03-23 | Mindfreak | 17 Anubis 13-11 | 16 Nuke 11-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ |
