CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsBetter playRisk
Line
32
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.9
Hit
42.6%
EV+
-26.1%
Edge
-2.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
11
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.08
Hit
34.3%
EV+
-40.7%
Edge
+1.1
L10
50%
Gratisfaction
AWPer
Gratisfaction
Off Chops vs Ground Zero
43%HIT CHANCE
RISK · UNDER 32
▲ L5 35.8 · L20 30.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 44% hitL10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 32 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.3
Previous meeting · vs Ground Zero
1/1 hit · avg 25 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · Logitech G Pro Series 2026
Dust2 13-6 · Anubis 11-13 · Split
25
Under 32 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
36.5
2/6 hit at 32
Online
27.3
10/14 hit at 32
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm Gratisfaction is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 32
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 74.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 31 kills or fewer: below 0.818 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.9
Raw edge
-2.1
Cons. hit
42.6%
EV+
-26.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.1
Line
32
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.6%
0 →
Learned
42.6%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 30-34
All players · Kills
47%247 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
  • Edge -2.1 below ±3.0 minimum
  • Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • L10 form (4/10 rule): L10 4/10 at this line · projection 4.0 from his L10 avg · blocked
  • Under risk — team 75% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 6% (under 22%) · 39.1 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 75% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 4.0 from his L10 avg · blocked
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.9 kills vs line 32.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.81, HS 40%. Next: vs Ground Zero, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 33.9 against a 32.0 line

  • 38% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 29.9 vs line 32 → -2.1 (-6.6%)
  • • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
  • • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
  • • Expected 39.1 rounds · 2-0 62.6% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.03
HS/Map
6.08
K/D
1.21
KPR
0.81
ADR
82.2
KAST
74.6%
HS%
40.4%
Multi-kill
20.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)15.7 · KPR 0.799 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Inferno)14.2 · KPR 0.761 · 19r
Required KPR to clear0.818
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.52
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.04%
Final projected kills29.9
Ground Zero gives up (5 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 32. Model: 61.3% before the safety haircut.
13141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849line 32
Lopsided maps42.9%
~26 kills · 33r85.2%
Normal34.6%
~33 kills · 43r43.3%
Close maps16.9%
~33 kills · 43r45.2%
Overtime5.6%
~37 kills · 49r20.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
HLTV #131VRS #123HLTV #143VRS #136
Off Chops 75%25% Ground Zero
Win chance source: Polymarket 74.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 75% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
20.1r
-4% KPR here
M2 Inferno
19r
-9% KPR here
Total
39.1r
2-0 sweep62.6%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)42.9%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Inferno

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32 (Under) · avg 33.9 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
32
Nearby lines
30 Under34.2%below BE
31 Under39.4%below BE
32 Under42.6%OFFERED
33 Under45.7%below BE
34 Under48.6%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32
Line movement
first 32→offno change
  1. Pulled32
    Oct 25, 10:14 PM
  2. First seen32
    Oct 24, 01:46 PM
Map stats
Dust2
15 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.77
HS%
41.6%
K/D
1.24
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.72
HS%
39.1%
K/D
1.16
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
10.6
KPR
0.62
HS%
43.4%
K/D
0.93
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.84
HS%
26.5%
K/D
1.48
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
34.9%
K/D
1.3
Cache
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.78
HS%
44.8%
K/D
1.32
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
75%
K/D
1.6
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-18NEXVOID36 Dust2 17-198 Inferno 9-1344LOver ✗OT
2026-10-17Rooster11 Nuke 13-719 Cache 13-230WUnder ✓BO
2026-10-16Abyssal16 Dust2 13-721 Inferno 13-337WOver ✗BO
2026-10-16Ground Zero14 Dust2 13-611 Anubis 11-1325SplitUnder ✓
2026-10-16FlyQuest18 Dust2 10-1325 Inferno 16-1943LOver ✗OT
2026-09-29FlyQuest12 Inferno 4-1315 Dust2 9-1327LUnder ✓BO
2026-09-28THUNDER dOWNUNDER17 Inferno 13-819 Dust2 13-936WOver ✗
2026-09-27FlyQuest11 Inferno 2-1311 Ancient 4-1322LUnder ✓BO
2026-09-25THUNDER dOWNUNDER16 Ancient 13-418 Dust2 13-334WOver ✗BO
2026-09-23THUNDER dOWNUNDER23 Nuke 13-718 Inferno 13-741WOver ✗
2026-09-01THUNDER dOWNUNDER13 Dust2 13-819 Inferno 13-132WUnder ✗BO
2026-08-30Alter Ego10 Cache 13-913 Dust2 11-1323SplitUnder ✓
2026-08-30THUNDER dOWNUNDER15 Nuke 13-58 Inferno 11-1323SplitUnder ✓BO
2026-08-29The Huns11 Dust2 11-1312 Ancient 13-723SplitUnder ✓
2026-08-28Nas16 Mirage 13-815 Dust2 13-331WUnder ✓BO
2026-08-28THUNDER dOWNUNDER17 Inferno 13-813 Anubis 13-530WUnder ✓BO
2026-08-27Alter Ego14 Dust2 10-137 Ancient 13-421SplitUnder ✓BO
2026-08-26NEXVOID17 Dust2 13-75 Inferno 5-1322SplitUnder ✓BO
2026-08-25QuantumX7 Ancient 13-110 Dust2 13-617WUnder ✓BO
2026-07-19FlyQuest21 Dust2 13-619 Anubis 13-540WOver ✗BO
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