KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.97
Hit
47.9%
EV+
-17.1%
Edge
+0.5
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
18.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.68
Hit
53.4%
EV+
-7.4%
Edge
+0.2
L10
70%
Rifler
Spinx
MOUZ vs The MongolZ
RISK · OVER 30.5
BEST OVER · UD 29.5PP30.5UD29.5
▼ L5 28.4 · L20 31.4Risk · Edge +0.5 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 30.5 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.73
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
No meeting with The MongolZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.4
11/20 hit at 30.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Spinx is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.759 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (56.3%) or blowout (36.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.97
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
47.9%
EV+
-17.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.2
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.9%
0 →
Learned
47.9%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
54.3%440 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
L10 only 40% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 40.2 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 36% (under 40%) · team 76% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 4/10 at this line · projection 0.3 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.7 kills vs line 30.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 60%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.7 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.97 vs line 30.5 → +0.47 (1.5%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
- • Expected 40.2 rounds · 2-0 56.3% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.72
HS/Map
9.47
K/D
1.24
KPR
0.71
ADR
80.2
KAST
78.7%
HS%
60.3%
Multi-kill
17.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)15.4 · KPR 0.768 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.6 · KPR 0.785 · 20r
Required KPR to clear0.759
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.21
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.76%
Final projected kills30.97
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-1.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30.5. Model: 54% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps36.4%
~26 kills · 34r19.3%
Normal32.8%
~32 kills · 42r61.7%
Close maps16.4%
~33 kills · 43r66.4%
Overtime14.4%
~38 kills · 49r87.8%
Match context
Oct 26, 3:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → −1.5 rounds/map (learned from 18 real matches) · kill rate +3% KPR
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Mirage
20.2r
+6% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20r
+8% KPR here
Total
40.2r
2-0 sweep56.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)36.4%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 28 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Over) · avg 30.7 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Over | 58.7% | |
| 29.5 Over | 54.7% | below BE |
| 30.5 Over | 47.9% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Over | 42.8% | below BE |
| 32.5 Over | 37.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→30.5no change
- First seen30.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.76
HS%
61%
K/D
1.41
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.79
HS%
60.3%
K/D
1.29
Cache
7 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
53.9%
K/D
1.26
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.5%
K/D
1.1
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.4%
K/D
1.19
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.68
HS%
64.4%
K/D
1.09
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 9z | 13 Dust2 13-5 | 14 Nuke 13-3 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 20 Ancient 16-13 | 13 Inferno 12-16 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 14 Cache 8-13 | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 17 Dust2 13-7 | 11 Mirage 5-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 17 Nuke 13-11 | 13 Inferno 13-6 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 22 Dust2 13-5 | 18 Mirage 13-11 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 13 Cache 13-4 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 12 Cache 13-9 | 15 Mirage 13-6 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 16 Cache 8-13 | 21 Mirage 19-16 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 14 Cache 10-13 | 19 Inferno 13-10 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 13 Cache 11-13 | 17 Inferno 13-5 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 8 Dust2 8-13 | 17 Mirage 13-11 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 18 Dust2 13-11 | 22 Mirage 13-7 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 5 Nuke 6-13 | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 19 Ancient 13-4 | 15 Mirage 13-5 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 20 Cache 13-4 | 11 Nuke 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 20 Dust2 13-16 | 12 Ancient 5-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 20 Mirage 13-11 | 24 Ancient 19-22 | 44 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 18 Dust2 13-4 | 16 Inferno 13-10 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 26 Nuke 16-12 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
