KillsLean
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.49
Hit
60.3%
EV+
+4.4%
Edge
+3.0
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.29
Hit
63.5%
EV+
+10.0%
Edge
+2.3
L10
60%

Rifler
kyuubii
INFINITE vs BRUTE
LEAN · OVER 28.5
BEST OVER · PP 28.5PP28.5UD28.5SL29.5
▼ L5 28.6 · L20 30.0
Hit rates at 28.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
53%
9/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±6.07
Previous meeting · vs BRUTE
No meeting with BRUTE in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
30.7
7/13 hit at 28.5
Online · this match
27.8
2/4 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm kyuubii is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 45.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: 0.589 KPR over ~48 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72.5%) or blowout (14.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.49
Raw edge
+3.0
Cons. hit
60.3%
EV+
+4.4%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
48.4
Line
28.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
60.3%
-8.6 →
Learned
51.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
53.6%334 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +3.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 52.9% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 52.9% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (32.72) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.9 kills vs line 28.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 58%. Next: vs BRUTE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 28.9 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 31.49 vs line 28.5 → +2.99 (10.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 48.4 rounds · 2-0 72.5% · OT 21.8%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
15
HS/Map
8.65
K/D
0.95
KPR
0.62
ADR
68.5
KAST
70.8%
HS%
57.6%
Multi-kill
13.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)15.5 · KPR 0.653 · 23.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)17.3 · KPR 0.688 · 24.9r
Required KPR to clear0.589
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.48
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.76%
Final projected kills32.72
BRUTE gives up (32 series)-5.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 28.5. Model: 68.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps14.3%
~26 kills · 41r33.8%
Normal55.2%
~30 kills · 46r59.6%
Close maps8.7%
~34 kills · 52r80.7%
Overtime21.8%
~38 kills · 58r93.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 03:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 45.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 45% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
23.5r
+5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
24.9r
+10% KPR here
Total
48.4r
2-0 sweep72.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.5%
Overtime21.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)14.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Over) · avg 28.9 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Over | 64.4% | |
| 27.5 Over | 63.2% | |
| 28.5 Over | 60.3% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Over | 56% | below BE |
| 30.5 Over | 52.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→28.5no change
- First seen28.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.66
HS%
60.3%
K/D
1.01
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.71
HS%
53.2%
K/D
0.97
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.52
HS%
58.8%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.62
HS%
62.5%
K/D
0.98
Cache
4 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.67
HS%
58.8%
K/D
0.94
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.74
HS%
53.1%
K/D
1.14
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.31
HS%
55.6%
K/D
0.39
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Envy | 15 Ancient 8-13 | 10 Dust2 1-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Eternal Fire | 6 Cache 1-13 | 32 Dust2 20-22 | 38 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-09 | WBT | 8 Dust2 9-13 | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | G2 Ares | 12 Inferno 7-13 | 17 Ancient 14-16 | 29 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-04 | SAW | 14 Nuke 9-13 | 17 Ancient 13-16 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Wildcard | 16 Inferno 13-11 | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | UNiTY | 17 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Mirage 7-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-02 | SAW | 11 Cache 13-8 | 12 Ancient 13-8 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | RBLS | 18 Nuke 13-8 | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Fluxo | 33 Mirage 20-22 | 7 Dust2 3-13 | 40 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-26 | GenOne | 20 Dust2 11-13 | 21 Ancient 13-10 | 41 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | NT | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 30 Dust2 19-16 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | SAW | 11 Inferno 9-13 | 15 Dust2 10-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 19 Ancient 5-13 | 13 Mirage 9-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | 1win | 19 Dust2 9-13 | 17 Mirage 16-14 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-19 | Germany | 0 Mirage 16-13 | 15 Cache 13-8 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-19 | Germany | 9 Anubis 13-16 | 19 Cache 13-7 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |








































































































































































