KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.78
Hit
58%
EV+
+0.4%
Edge
+1.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.62
Hit
46.5%
EV+
-19.5%
Edge
+0.1
L10
20%
#55Ranked 55 of 277 on the board

Rifler
M1key
UNiTY vs Acend
RISK · OVER 29.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP29.5SL29.5
≈ L5 29.8 · L20 30.0Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 29.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
53%
10/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.72
Previous meeting · vs Acend
No meeting with Acend in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
30.3
2/4 hit at 29.5
Online · this match
29.9
8/15 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm M1key is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 60.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.688 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (73%) or blowout (28.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.78
Raw edge
+1.3
Cons. hit
58%
EV+
+0.4%
Rating
4.1/10
Exp. rounds
42.9
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
58%
+8.2 →
Learned
66.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
56%332 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 52.6% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 73% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 52.6% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 73% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (31.2) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.4 kills vs line 29.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 51%. Next: vs Acend, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 29.4 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 30.78 vs line 29.5 → +1.28 (4.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 42.9 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
15
HS/Map
7.68
K/D
1.15
KPR
0.73
ADR
81.5
KAST
72%
HS%
51.2%
Multi-kill
17.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)16.9 · KPR 0.796 · 21.7r
Map 2 (Cache)14.3 · KPR 0.687 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.688
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.84
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.01%
Final projected kills31.2
Acend gives up (32 series)0% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29.5. Model: 63.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.7%
~26 kills · 36r23.6%
Normal52.2%
~32 kills · 45r67.1%
Close maps13.3%
~33 kills · 46r71.3%
Overtime5.8%
~37 kills · 52r89.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 09:00 AMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 60.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 60% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
21.7r
+8% KPR here
M2 Cache
21.2r
-7% KPR here
Total
42.9r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)19.1%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Over) · avg 29.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Over | 65.4% | |
| 28.5 Over | 62.9% | |
| 29.5 Over | 58% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Over | 50.4% | below BE |
| 31.5 Over | 42% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→29.5no change
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.81
HS%
46.1%
K/D
1.38
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.72
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1.16
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.67
HS%
51.1%
K/D
0.97
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.68
HS%
52.4%
K/D
1.11
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
17.7
KPR
0.72
HS%
62.3%
K/D
1.09
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.44
HS%
25%
K/D
0.73
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.53
HS%
37.5%
K/D
1.14
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Betclic | 18 Ancient 13-11 | 12 Cache 6-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | FOKUS | 17 Mirage 13-8 | 11 Cache 7-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | 9INE | 24 Mirage 13-10 | 7 Cache 3-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | mellren | 19 Mirage 13-5 | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 12 Mirage 13-6 | 14 Cache 13-11 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 18 Ancient 13-11 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 16 Mirage 13-5 | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | INFINITE | 21 Inferno 13-11 | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | aimclub | 17 Dust2 13-5 | 12 Cache 13-4 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Illyrians | 9 Inferno 13-1 | 15 Dust2 7-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 22 Ancient 16-14 | 18 Dust2 13-9 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | Phantom Academy | 22 Dust2 13-11 | 21 Ancient 13-11 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 19 Cache 13-8 | 13 Mirage 6-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | ENCE | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 18 Inferno 13-9 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Leo | 19 Mirage 12-16 | 13 Dust2 7-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | MOUZ NXT | 17 Cache 13-8 | 18 Mirage 13-4 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-07 | EAC | 11 Inferno 8-13 | 8 Nuke 5-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | Black Phoenix | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 8 Anubis 13-2 | 19 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | INOX Division | 19 Ancient 11-13 | 8 Inferno 9-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ |








































































































































































