KillsBetter playLean
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.62
Hit
56.8%
EV+
-1.6%
Edge
-2.9
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.33
Hit
45.1%
EV+
-21.9%
Edge
-0.7
L10
50%
#64Ranked 64 of 277 on the board

Rifler
KusMe
FORZE Reload vs ex-RUSTEC
LEAN · UNDER 29.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP29.5UD29.5SL29.5
≈ L5 28.6 · L20 27.6
Hit rates at 29.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±6.09
Previous meeting · vs ex-RUSTEC
No meeting with ex-RUSTEC in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
27.6
13/20 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm KusMe is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 56.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.683 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
26.62
Raw edge
-2.9
Cons. hit
56.8%
EV+
-1.6%
Rating
5.4/10
Exp. rounds
43.2
Line
29.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
56.8%
-8.7 →
Learned
48.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
44%332 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25.77) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 26.1 kills vs line 29.5 (2/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 56%. Next: vs ex-RUSTEC, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 26.1 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.62 vs line 29.5 → -2.88 (-9.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 43.2 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.78
HS/Map
7.67
K/D
1.06
KPR
0.63
ADR
71.1
KAST
73.5%
HS%
55.7%
Multi-kill
14.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)13 · KPR 0.612 · 21.6r
Map 2 (Ancient)12.7 · KPR 0.598 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.683
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.14
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.42%
Final projected kills25.77
ex-RUSTEC gives up (53 series)+2.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29.5. Model: 68.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.2%
~22 kills · 36r91.9%
Normal57.5%
~27 kills · 44r66.6%
Close maps10.5%
~29 kills · 46r58.6%
Overtime7.8%
~32 kills · 52r33.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
Win chance source: Polymarket 56.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 56% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
21.6r
-3% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.6r
-5% KPR here
Total
43.2r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Under) · avg 26.1 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Under | 47.7% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 53.5% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 56.8% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Under | 59.5% | |
| 31.5 Under | 61.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→29.5no change
- First seen29.5Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.61
HS%
52.2%
K/D
0.94
Cache
7 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.77
HS%
57.3%
K/D
1.47
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.58
HS%
54.2%
K/D
0.86
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.76
HS%
56.7%
K/D
1.3
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.54
HS%
60.9%
K/D
0.83
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
20
KPR
0.85
HS%
55%
K/D
1.21
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Nuclear TigeRES | 15 Dust2 13-16 | 11 Anubis 4-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-24 | Acend | 14 Ancient 6-13 | 10 Cache 4-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | Sökerorg | 12 Ancient 13-7 | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Rune Eaters | 11 Dust2 13-10 | 17 Cache 13-5 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-22 | Just Players | 20 Mirage 19-16 | 20 Cache 13-5 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 11 Dust2 10-13 | 11 Cache 13-11 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | GenOne | 13 Cache 13-9 | 19 Anubis 16-13 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BAKS | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 15 Cache 13-0 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | Black Phoenix | 11 Anubis 6-13 | 7 Dust2 0-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Lavked | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 10 Dust2 13-5 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | Sökerorg | 22 Mirage 13-10 | 21 Dust2 13-6 | 43 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | BET-M | 16 Dust2 13-11 | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Spirit Academy | 19 Mirage 13-8 | 15 Ancient 8-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | mellren | 18 Nuke 13-10 | 12 Mirage 13-4 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | Fire Flux | 9 Anubis 6-13 | 22 Nuke 13-11 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Banda Chuya | 5 Anubis 13-7 | 17 Cache 13-9 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | Nemesis | 15 Mirage 9-13 | 8 Ancient 6-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | MAYBE | 13 Dust2 13-3 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-23 | Younglings | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 20 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Younglings | 12 Ancient 13-8 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 29 | W | Under ✓ |








































































































































































