KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.49
Hit
48.2%
EV+
-16.5%
Edge
-1.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
11
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.05
Hit
31.9%
EV+
-44.7%
Edge
+2.0
L10
50%
#206Ranked 206 of 277 on the board

AWPer
youka
ex-RUSTEC vs FORZE Reload
RISK · UNDER 30.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP30.5UD30.5SL30.5
≈ L5 30.6 · L20 30.3Risk · Edge -1.0 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 30.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
53%
8/15
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±6.13
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
No meeting with FORZE Reload in his last 15 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
30.3
8/15 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm youka is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.685 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.9%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.49
Raw edge
-1.0
Cons. hit
48.2%
EV+
-16.5%
Rating
1.1/10
Exp. rounds
44.5
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.2%
+8.7 →
Learned
56.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
44.8%286 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 53.3% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 15 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 53.3% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 13% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.01) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.7 kills vs line 30.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 44%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 28.7 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.49 vs line 30.5 → -1.01 (-3.3%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44.5 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 12.9%
Performance (last 30 maps)
Kills/Map
15.13
HS/Map
6.6
K/D
1.16
KPR
0.65
ADR
65.3
KAST
73.8%
HS%
43.6%
Multi-kill
12.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)13.5 · KPR 0.619 · 22.1r
Map 2 (Nuke)15.5 · KPR 0.697 · 22.4r
Required KPR to clear0.685
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.29
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.95%
Final projected kills29.01
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-4.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30.5. Model: 56.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.8%
~25 kills · 37r86.8%
Normal52%
~30 kills · 45r56%
Close maps10.3%
~32 kills · 48r44%
Overtime12.9%
~36 kills · 54r20.8%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 12
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 44% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Dust2
22.1r
-4% KPR here
M2 Nuke
22.4r
+8% KPR here
Total
44.5r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.2%
Overtime12.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Under) · avg 28.7 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Under | 37% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 42.6% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 48.2% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Under | 53.7% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 56.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→30.5no change
- First seen30.5Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
46.8%
K/D
1.02
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.72
HS%
47.8%
K/D
1.07
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
41.1%
K/D
1.26
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.77
HS%
36.6%
K/D
1.22
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.71
HS%
43.9%
K/D
1.24
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.74
HS%
40%
K/D
1.52
Cache
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.62
HS%
40%
K/D
1.43
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Saint Sinners | 13 Dust2 5-13 | 20 Nuke 13-6 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | mellren | 13 Nuke 13-11 | 16 Ancient 13-10 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Metizport | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 10 Nuke 9-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Illyrians | 15 Anubis 13-6 | 16 Ancient 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Butterfly | 19 Dust2 16-13 | 21 Nuke 11-13 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | Saint Sinners | 16 Dust2 11-13 | 14 Nuke 13-8 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | mellren | 8 Ancient 8-13 | 10 Cache 13-3 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Iberian Soul | 13 Nuke 7-13 | 20 Mirage 17-19 | 33 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | Butterfly | 13 Dust2 9-13 | 12 Inferno 13-10 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Enjoy | 16 Mirage 9-13 | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-30 | BERG | 23 Inferno 13-11 | 24 Nuke 16-14 | 47 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | Nexus | 15 Dust2 14-16 | 12 Ancient 5-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | Black Phoenix | 13 Dust2 7-13 | 16 Anubis 6-13 | 29 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Iberian Soul | 21 Ancient 13-5 | 11 Mirage 13-4 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | ENCE | 8 Dust2 13-1 | 24 Mirage 13-4 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |








































































































































































