KillsRisk
Line
32
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.86
Hit
53.7%
EV+
-7.0%
Edge
+2.9
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.96
Hit
61.2%
EV+
+6.0%
Edge
+1.5
L10
50%
AWPer
forsyy
Metizport vs BRUTE
RISK · OVER 32
BEST OVER · UD 31.5PP32UD31.5
▼ L5 32.2 · L20 33.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other wayL10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 32 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
39%
7/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±8.1
Previous meeting · vs BRUTE
No meeting with BRUTE in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
27.3
0/4 hit at 32
Online · this match
35.8
7/14 hit at 32
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm forsyy is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 33+ kills: 0.663 KPR over ~48 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (16.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
34.86
Raw edge
+2.9
Cons. hit
53.7%
EV+
-7.0%
Rating
2.9/10
Exp. rounds
48.3
Line
32
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.7%
0 →
Learned
53.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 30-34
All players · Kills
53.3%244 picks
This player
60%5 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 form (4/10 rule): L10 3/10 at this line · projection 4.3 from his L10 avg · blocked
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
L10 only 30% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 38.9% at this line
Game script fits · 48.3 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 17% (under 40%) · team 59% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 3/10 at this line · projection 4.3 from his L10 avg · blocked
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.6 kills vs line 32.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 34%. Next: vs BRUTE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 30.6 against a 32.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 34.86 vs line 32 → +2.86 (8.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 48.3 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 20.7%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
16.94
HS/Map
5.81
K/D
1.26
KPR
0.69
ADR
70.8
KAST
77.2%
HS%
34.3%
Multi-kill
16.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)16.8 · KPR 0.684 · 24.3r
Map 2 (Inferno)18.1 · KPR 0.744 · 24r
Required KPR to clear0.663
Base kills (Maps 1-2)34.5
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.07%
Final projected kills34.86
BRUTE gives up (32 series)-5.6% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 32. Model: 63.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps16.8%
~29 kills · 41r29.7%
Normal54.1%
~34 kills · 47r54.7%
Close maps8.4%
~37 kills · 52r73.8%
Overtime20.7%
~42 kills · 58r88.7%
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 AM CTOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.0%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 59% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Nuke
24.3r
+2% KPR here
M2 Inferno
24r
+11% KPR here
Total
48.3r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime20.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)16.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 36 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32 (Over) · avg 30.6 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
32
Nearby lines
| 30 Over | 59.8% | |
| 31 Over | 57.9% | |
| 32 Over | 53.7% | OFFERED |
| 33 Over | 51% | below BE |
| 34 Over | 46.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32
Line movement
first 32→32no change
- First seen32Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Nuke
14 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.71
HS%
33.7%
K/D
1.26
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.8
HS%
34.4%
K/D
1.33
Cache
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.73
HS%
29.3%
K/D
1.36
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
19.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
36.4%
K/D
1.22
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
10.3
KPR
0.48
HS%
45.2%
K/D
0.91
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.76
HS%
37.1%
K/D
1.25
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | BAKS | 13 Cache 13-6 | 16 Nuke 10-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Sangal | 27 Cache 16-14 | 24 Nuke 17-19 | 51 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | GenOne | 8 Cache 13-3 | 16 Nuke 13-2 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 9 Anubis 13-7 | 14 Nuke 13-9 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | K27 | 19 Nuke 13-11 | 15 Mirage 8-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Inner Circle Academy | 10 Anubis 13-9 | 18 Nuke 13-9 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | aimclub | 14 Mirage 13-6 | 13 Inferno 7-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | HAVU | 9 Nuke 8-13 | 13 Inferno 13-6 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Optibet | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 18 Nuke 13-8 | 32 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Nemiga | 25 Mirage 14-16 | 11 Nuke 8-13 | 36 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 11 Cache 13-6 | 13 Nuke 14-16 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | Lavked | 19 Inferno 13-11 | 23 Mirage 16-14 | 42 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-05 | 9INE | 45 Nuke 25-23 | 21 Ancient 13-11 | 66 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Sashi | 27 Inferno 16-13 | 32 Cache 16-13 | 59 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Walczaki | 9 Inferno 13-6 | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 16 Inferno 8-13 | 14 Nuke 13-9 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | ASTRAL | 8 Cache 9-13 | 17 Nuke 13-8 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | PCIFIC | 12 Nuke 13-7 | 25 Inferno 13-7 | 37 | W | Over ✓ |
