KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.36
Hit
54.2%
EV+
-6.1%
Edge
-2.1
L10
90%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.55
Hit
47%
EV+
-18.6%
Edge
-0.9
L10
60%
#218Ranked 218 of 277 on the board

Rifler
m1QUSE
INOX Division vs Acend
RISK · UNDER 15.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP15.5SL15.5
≈ L5 15.4 · L20 15.0Risk · Edge -0.9 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
53%
10/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.78
Previous meeting · vs Acend
No meeting with Acend in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
15
10/19 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm m1QUSE is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 62.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 51.9% HS): below 0.655 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.55
Raw edge
-0.9
Cons. hit
47%
EV+
-18.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.6
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47%
+7 →
Learned
54%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%263 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 52.6% at this line
- Under risk — team 62% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 52.6% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.19) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.7 headshots vs line 15.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 52%. Next: vs Acend, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 14.7 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.55 vs line 15.5 → -0.95 (-6.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.6 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 10.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.45
HS/Map
7.5
K/D
0.93
KPR
0.63
ADR
70.7
KAST
70.8%
HS%
51.9%
Multi-kill
15.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)7.4 · KPR 0.615 · 23.2r
Map 2 (Anubis)6.8 · KPR 0.59 · 22.4r
Required KPR to clear0.655
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.48
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.51%
Final projected kills27.34
× realistic HS% (51.9%)14.55
Acend gives up (32 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15.5. Model: 57.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.5%
~12 HS · 38r79.4%
Normal52%
~15 HS · 46r58.6%
Close maps13%
~16 HS · 49r52%
Overtime10.5%
~18 HS · 55r36.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 62.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 62% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
23.2r
-3% KPR here
M2 Anubis
22.4r
-7% KPR here
Total
45.6r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.5%
Overtime10.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 14.7 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Under | 35.1% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 40.1% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 47% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Under | 53.7% | below BE |
| 17.5 Under | 59.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→15.5no change
- First seen15.5Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
54.7%
K/D
0.79
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.8
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.75
HS%
47.6%
K/D
1.17
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.68
HS%
47.2%
K/D
1.05
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.78
HS%
55.4%
K/D
1.05
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.68
HS%
65.4%
K/D
0.9
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | INOX Division | 7 Nuke 3-13 | 4 Dust2 13-5 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | Aces | 16 Dust2 7-13 | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PRIVATE | 6 Anubis 6-13 | 7 Dust2 3-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | SINNERS | 11 Inferno 13-6 | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | INOX Division | 5 Ancient 13-9 | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | CYBERSHOKE | 6 Dust2 13-9 | 6 Anubis 7-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | HEROIC | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 9 Dust2 17-19 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | B8 | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 9 Mirage 4-13 | 17 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | INFINITE | 5 Inferno 13-4 | 3 Dust2 9-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Eternal Fire | 10 Ancient 16-13 | 9 Anubis 13-10 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | magic | 3 Anubis 13-11 | 6 Ancient 13-5 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-01 | Color | 9 Dust2 9-13 | 11 Inferno 13-2 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-24 | CYBERSHOKE | 9 Ancient 13-8 | 8 Anubis 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-06 | Butterfly | 5 Inferno 13-7 | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-06 | Sashi | 6 Nuke 13-7 | 10 Anubis 11-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-05 | CYBERSHOKE Prospects | 6 Ancient 13-9 | 9 Inferno 22-20 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-04 | Just Players | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 2 Anubis 13-9 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-24 | Echo | 5 Anubis 8-13 | 15 Nuke 14-16 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | OT |








































































































































































