KillsBetter playLean
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.2
Hit
56.8%
EV+
-1.7%
Edge
-2.3
L10
80%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.38
Hit
42.6%
EV+
-26.2%
Edge
-1.1
L10
40%
#254Ranked 254 of 277 on the board

Rifler
ropz
Vitality vs The MongolZ
RISK · UNDER 16.5
BEST UNDER · PP 16.5PP16.5UD16.5SL15.5
≈ L5 15.8 · L20 16.1Risk · Edge -1.1 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 16.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.19
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
No meeting with The MongolZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.1
9/20 hit at 16.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm ropz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 80.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 53.9% HS): below 0.81 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.38
Raw edge
-1.1
Cons. hit
42.6%
EV+
-26.2%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
37.8
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.6%
+8.7 →
Learned
51.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
40.5%247 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.2) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.8 headshots vs line 15.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 54%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.8 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.38 vs line 16.5 → -1.12 (-6.8%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 37.8 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.88
HS/Map
8.03
K/D
1.19
KPR
0.72
ADR
76.2
KAST
76.2%
HS%
53.9%
Multi-kill
17.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)7.5 · KPR 0.744 · 19.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.7 · KPR 0.778 · 18.7r
Required KPR to clear0.81
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.75
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.91%
Final projected kills28.2
× realistic HS% (53.9%)15.38
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-5.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16.5. Model: 60.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.6%
~13 HS · 32r83.6%
Normal39.7%
~16 HS · 40r54.1%
Close maps18.9%
~17 HS · 40r52.2%
Overtime7.8%
~19 HS · 46r30.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 80.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Anubis
19.1r
-5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
18.7r
Total
37.8r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Under) · avg 15.8 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Under | 29.3% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 35% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 42.6% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Under | 53.8% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 59.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 15.5→16.5+1
- Back on board16.5 → 16.5Oct 25, 05:49 AM
- Pulled16.5Oct 25, 05:48 AM
- Back on board16 → 16.5Oct 25, 05:48 AM
- Pulled16Oct 25, 05:17 AM
- Moved up15.5 → 16Oct 25, 04:16 AM
- First seen15.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.72
HS%
49.2%
K/D
1.24
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.68
HS%
54%
K/D
1.14
Cache
8 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.75
HS%
51.2%
K/D
1.3
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.8
HS%
65.5%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.59
HS%
46.4%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.73
HS%
62.3%
K/D
1.52
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 9z | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 7 Cache 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | MOUZ | 4 Cache 13-8 | 6 Inferno 13-7 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Aurora | 9 Anubis 7-13 | 8 Cache 13-7 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PARIVISION | 8 Inferno 13-2 | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Falcons | 10 Anubis 9-13 | 8 Dust2 13-4 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Natus Vincere | 7 Anubis 13-5 | 3 Nuke 5-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 1win | 6 Dust2 13-1 | 4 Cache 13-5 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Aurora | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | FURIA | 11 Cache 13-5 | 10 Anubis 13-8 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Aurora | 6 Anubis 7-13 | 10 Inferno 13-11 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | FURIA | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | magic | 12 Mirage 13-6 | 11 Dust2 13-9 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | MOUZ | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Mirage 7-13 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | FURIA | 4 Nuke 6-13 | 11 Cache 13-11 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FUT | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Legacy | 8 Nuke 16-14 | 14 Mirage 9-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | 9z | 4 Dust2 13-2 | 4 Nuke 13-6 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Inner Circle | 6 Anubis 8-13 | 9 Cache 13-16 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Spirit | 5 Anubis 11-13 | 13 Nuke 16-14 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | FaZe | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Cache 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































