KillsRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
24.98
Hit
55.5%
EV+
-3.8%
Edge
+0.5
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
11
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.71
Hit
55.6%
EV+
-3.7%
Edge
+0.7
L10
40%

Rifler · IGL
art
Legacy vs DENDELE
RISK · OVER 11
BEST OVER · PP 11PP11UD11.5SL11.5
≈ L5 11.2 · L20 11.6Risk · Edge +0.7 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 11 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±1.99
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.6
10/20 hit at 11
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm arT is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 12+ HS (~25 kills at 47.6% HS): 0.541 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (57.5%) or blowout (17.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
11.71
Raw edge
+0.7
Cons. hit
55.6%
EV+
-3.7%
Rating
4.8/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
11
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
55.6%
+8.4 →
Learned
64%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 9-13
All players · Headshots
58.7%104 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.7 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Blowout win risk — team 72% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 57% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (11.93) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 11.2 headshots vs line 11.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.54, HS 48%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 11.2 against a 11.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 11.71 vs line 11 → +0.71 (6.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 57.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.18
HS/Map
5.8
K/D
0.78
KPR
0.55
ADR
61.6
KAST
70.2%
HS%
47.6%
Multi-kill
11.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)6.5 · KPR 0.619 · 22r
Map 2 (Dust2)5.4 · KPR 0.551 · 20.7r
Required KPR to clear0.541
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.02
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.18%
Final projected kills25.06
× realistic HS% (47.6%)11.71
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 11. Model: 63.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps17.9%
~10 HS · 36r28.8%
Normal55.4%
~12 HS · 42r47.8%
Close maps12.3%
~13 HS · 46r59.4%
Overtime14.4%
~14 HS · 52r74.8%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 72% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Ancient
22r
+5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.7r
-6% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep57.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)17.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11 (Over) · avg 11.2 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
11
Nearby lines
| 9 Over | 67% | |
| 10 Over | 63.6% | |
| 11 Over | 55.6% | OFFERED |
| 12 Over | 39.9% | below BE |
| 13 Over | 28.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11
Line movement
first 11→11no change
- First seen11Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.5
HS%
52.7%
K/D
0.7
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.58
HS%
44.3%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
10.7
KPR
0.48
HS%
48%
K/D
0.7
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.62
HS%
51.5%
K/D
1.02
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.48
HS%
46.8%
K/D
0.65
Cache
2 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.8
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.47
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.73
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Nemiga | 10 Ancient 23-25 | 1 Dust2 8-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | BetBoom | 5 Nuke 13-16 | 3 Dust2 13-11 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | FURIA | 5 Cache 13-10 | 5 Inferno 5-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | PARIVISION | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Mirage 16-14 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | G2 | 6 Ancient 13-9 | 6 Mirage 13-10 | 12 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | MIBR | 4 Nuke 13-10 | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | FURIA | 2 Mirage 13-7 | 8 Ancient 13-9 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Alliance | 5 Inferno 13-4 | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | magic | 5 Ancient 13-7 | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 12 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Vitality | 6 Nuke 14-16 | 4 Mirage 13-9 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Falcons | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-27 | FUT | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FURIA | 6 Ancient 9-13 | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-22 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Falcons | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 4 Dust2 13-10 | 12 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Natus Vincere | 8 Inferno 13-9 | 4 Ancient 13-2 | 12 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | MIBR | 6 Nuke 13-11 | 4 Inferno 13-8 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | FaZe | 4 Cache 6-13 | 3 Mirage 8-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | G2 | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 3 Overpass 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | PARIVISION | 12 Inferno 16-12 | 8 Dust2 16-13 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































