KillsRisk
Line
27
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.97
Hit
50.5%
EV+
-12.6%
Edge
-0.0
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.13
Hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.6%
Edge
+0.6
L10
50%
#114Ranked 114 of 277 on the board

AWPer
cass1n
BESTIA vs paiN
RISK · OVER 9.5
BEST OVER · PP 9.5PP9.5UD10.5
▼ L5 9.0 · L20 10.2Risk · Edge +0.6 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 9.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±5.81
Previous meeting · vs paiN
No meeting with paiN in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
10.4
5/11 hit at 9.5
Online · this match
9.9
5/9 hit at 9.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm cass1n is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 10+ HS (~27 kills at 36.9% HS): 0.584 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (61%) or blowout (20%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
10.13
Raw edge
+0.6
Cons. hit
53.9%
EV+
-6.6%
Rating
1.9/10
Exp. rounds
44.1
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.9%
+8.5 →
Learned
62.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
55.6%72 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 61% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (10.61) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.8 headshots vs line 9.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 37%. Next: vs paiN, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 10.8 against a 9.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (61%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 10.13 vs line 9.5 → +0.63 (6.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.1 rounds · 2-0 61% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.75
HS/Map
5.08
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.63
ADR
65.4
KAST
77.1%
HS%
36.9%
Multi-kill
14.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)5.4 · KPR 0.66 · 22.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)5.2 · KPR 0.651 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.584
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.91
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.53%
Final projected kills28.76
× realistic HS% (36.9%)10.13
paiN gives up (81 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 9.5. Model: 54.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~9 HS · 37r36%
Normal61.7%
~10 HS · 45r48.7%
Close maps8.3%
~11 HS · 47r53.1%
Overtime10%
~12 HS · 53r62.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 52.0% · Polymarket 48.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
22.4r
+4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.7r
+3% KPR here
Total
44.1r
2-0 sweep61%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Over) · avg 10.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Over | 61.7% | |
| 8.5 Over | 57.5% | below BE |
| 9.5 Over | 53.9% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Over | 49.9% | below BE |
| 11.5 Over | 45.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→9.5no change
- First seen9.5Oct 25, 02:20 AM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
35.7%
K/D
1.22
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.66
HS%
33.9%
K/D
1.19
Cache
7 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.66
HS%
39.4%
K/D
1.04
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.69
HS%
38.8%
K/D
1.26
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.58
HS%
41%
K/D
1.05
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
7
KPR
0.37
HS%
28.6%
K/D
0.5
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 8 Ancient 13-9 | 9 Inferno 13-11 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 2 Dust2 13-7 | 1 Mirage 13-7 | 3 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 1 Cache 13-5 | 5 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 3 Ancient 10-13 | 4 Mirage 10-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 5 Cache 6-13 | 13 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Cache 16-14 | 6 Mirage 19-16 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 12 Mirage 16-13 | 9 Inferno 22-19 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 4 Mirage 13-10 | 1 Nuke 2-13 | 5 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 2 Ancient 13-7 | 6 Mirage 13-2 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 8 Ancient 10-13 | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 12 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 2 Inferno 13-3 | 4 Mirage 13-2 | 6 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 11 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 3 Cache 7-13 | 4 Ancient 4-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Imperial | 3 Nuke 10-13 | 7 Inferno 13-9 | 10 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | ALKA | 2 Cache 8-13 | 5 Dust2 13-8 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | Isurus | 11 Cache 7-13 | 5 Dust2 13-7 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Yawara | 5 Mirage 8-13 | 4 Dust2 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-05 | Grêmio | 4 Inferno 13-6 | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-04 | METANOIA Wolves | 2 Dust2 13-8 | 1 Mirage 13-5 | 3 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | MIBR | 6 Cache 9-13 | 7 Inferno 8-13 | 13 | L | Over ✓ |








































































































































































