KillsTake
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.85
Hit
63.4%
EV+
+9.9%
Edge
+5.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
15
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.94
Hit
64.4%
EV+
+11.5%
Edge
+3.9
L10
70%
#6Ranked 6 of 277 on the board

Rifler
reyoz
Color vs ex-Zero Tenacity
LEAN · OVER 15
PP15
▲ L5 18.4 · L20 17.1
Hit rates at 15 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±6.18
Previous meeting · vs ex-Zero Tenacity
No meeting with ex-Zero Tenacity in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
17.1
11/20 hit at 15
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm reyoz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 48.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~30 kills at 53.4% HS): 0.562 KPR over ~50 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (20.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.94
Raw edge
+3.9
Cons. hit
64.4%
EV+
+11.5%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
50
Line
15
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
64.4%
-8.4 →
Learned
56%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 13-17
All players · Headshots
61.4%241 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 73.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (19.17) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.4 headshots vs line 15.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.77, HS 53%. Next: vs ex-Zero Tenacity, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 19.4 against a 15.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
VALUE
- • Model 18.94 vs line 15 → +3.94 (26.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 50 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 23.3%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.97
HS/Map
8.53
K/D
1
KPR
0.77
ADR
81.8
KAST
74.2%
HS%
53.4%
Multi-kill
20.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)8.7 · KPR 0.658 · 24.6r
Map 2 (Mirage)10.4 · KPR 0.763 · 25.4r
Required KPR to clear0.562
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.57
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.92%
Final projected kills35.89
× realistic HS% (53.4%)18.94
ex-Zero Tenacity gives up (62 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15. Model: 73.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.6%
~16 HS · 42r50%
Normal44.4%
~18 HS · 48r65.8%
Close maps11.7%
~20 HS · 54r78.3%
Overtime23.3%
~23 HS · 60r87.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 48.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 48% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24.6r
-14% KPR here
M2 Mirage
25.4r
-1% KPR here
Total
50r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime23.3%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15 (Over) · avg 19.4 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
15
Nearby lines
| 13 Over | 66% | |
| 14 Over | 65.3% | |
| 15 Over | 64.4% | OFFERED |
| 16 Over | 63% | |
| 17 Over | 59.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 15→15no change
- First seen15Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Dust2
13 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
48.5%
K/D
0.9
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
19.2
KPR
0.76
HS%
58.3%
K/D
1.07
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.84
HS%
50.8%
K/D
1.32
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.56
HS%
58.1%
K/D
0.75
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.74
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.13
Cache
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.56
HS%
50%
K/D
0.67
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | los kogutos | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 18 Mirage 13-16 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | ex-6666 | 9 Anubis 13-10 | 4 Ancient 10-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | B8 Academy | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 5 Ancient 13-5 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-12 | Saint Sinners | 7 Dust2 13-9 | 10 Ancient 8-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Azuolas | 9 Mirage 13-16 | 16 Ancient 13-6 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | benched gods | 11 Ancient 9-13 | 11 Anubis 13-9 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | 6666 | 6 Anubis 4-13 | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Illyrians | 9 Ancient 13-7 | 12 Dust2 6-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | ex-RUSTEC | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 2 Dust2 9-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Leo | 13 Dust2 13-10 | 16 Mirage 13-16 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-30 | Azuolas | 6 Mirage 13-3 | 3 Ancient 13-2 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | MASONIC | 12 Dust2 17-19 | 7 Mirage 16-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Nemiga | 5 Cache 5-13 | 7 Dust2 13-9 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | WW | 6 Dust2 13-8 | 13 Mirage 16-14 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-20 | Color | 7 Anubis 16-14 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Color | 3 Dust2 13-11 | 15 Mirage 16-13 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-14 | Bushido Wildcats | 8 Dust2 10-13 | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-13 | INOX Division | 8 Inferno 13-4 | 7 Dust2 16-14 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-08 | Nemiga | 10 Dust2 13-16 | 3 Anubis 6-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | HEROIC | 3 Dust2 6-13 | 6 Inferno 5-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































