KillsLean
Line
26
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.82
Hit
58.8%
EV+
+1.9%
Edge
+2.8
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.96
Hit
59.9%
EV+
+3.7%
Edge
+1.5
L10
70%
#36Ranked 36 of 277 on the board

Rifler · IGL
huNter-
G2 vs Aurora
RISK · OVER 15.5
BEST OVER · UD 14.5PP15.5UD14.5
≈ L5 16.2 · L20 16.5Risk · Edge +1.5 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 15.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
High
±6.1
Previous meeting · vs Aurora
2/2 hit · avg 22 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 7-13 · Inferno 19-16 · Split
26
Over 15.5 ✓
2026-08-26 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Inferno 13-5 · Anubis 16-12 · W
18
Over 15.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.5
14/20 hit at 15.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm huNter- is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 40.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~27 kills at 58.6% HS): 0.607 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (22.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.96
Raw edge
+1.5
Cons. hit
59.9%
EV+
+3.7%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
59.9%
+8 →
Learned
67.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%263 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (17.29) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.4 headshots vs line 15.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 59%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.4 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 16.96 vs line 15.5 → +1.46 (9.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.07
HS/Map
8.25
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.61
ADR
67
KAST
72%
HS%
58.6%
Multi-kill
14.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)7.7 · KPR 0.623 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)9.6 · KPR 0.725 · 22.6r
Required KPR to clear0.607
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.47
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.13%
Final projected kills29.51
× realistic HS% (58.6%)16.96
Aurora gives up (91 series)-0.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15.5. Model: 59.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.9%
~14 HS · 37r37.3%
Normal46.3%
~17 HS · 43r54.9%
Close maps14.1%
~18 HS · 47r64.8%
Overtime16.7%
~21 HS · 53r77.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 40.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 40% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.6r
+18% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Over) · avg 16.4 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Over | 63.8% | |
| 14.5 Over | 62.2% | |
| 15.5 Over | 59.9% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Over | 53.2% | below BE |
| 17.5 Over | 47.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→15.5no change
- First seen15.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.63
HS%
58.6%
K/D
0.89
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.77
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.18
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.57
HS%
59.2%
K/D
0.88
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.7
HS%
58.8%
K/D
1.1
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.63
HS%
61.3%
K/D
0.93
Cache
4 maps
Kills
8.8
KPR
0.43
HS%
54.3%
K/D
0.64
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.5
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.67
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Natus Vincere | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 22 Dust2 19-22 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 6 Ancient 7-13 | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 4 Dust2 13-6 | 8 Ancient 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 4 Ancient 13-1 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 4 Cache 7-13 | 1 Inferno 4-13 | 5 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 11 Mirage 10-13 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 7 Mirage 7-13 | 10 Anubis 16-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 11 Ancient 16-14 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 9 Inferno 13-9 | 11 Ancient 13-4 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 5 Ancient 13-8 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 5 Cache 8-13 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 11 Ancient 9-13 | 14 Mirage 19-17 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 3 Inferno 6-13 | 13 Dust2 9-13 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 8 Anubis 7-13 | 18 Inferno 19-16 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 7 Inferno 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 3 Dust2 6-13 | 4 Cache 9-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 11 Anubis 16-12 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 4 Ancient 3-13 | 6 Anubis 13-3 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 6 Cache 13-5 | 11 Ancient 13-16 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |








































































































































































