KillsBetter playNeutral
Line
38
Pick
UNDER
Projection
34.93
Hit
54.4%
EV+
-5.8%
Edge
-3.1
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
24
Pick
UNDER
Projection
22.88
Hit
51%
EV+
-11.6%
Edge
-1.1
L10
70%
Rifler
donk
Team Spirit vs FURIA
NEUTRAL · UNDER 38
BEST UNDER · PP 38PP38UD37.5
▼ L5 32.6 · L20 37.5LAN UNDER · 44% hit
Hit rates at 38 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±6.33
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
0/1 hit · avg 39 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 13-10 · Cache 13-5 · W
39
Over 38 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
37.5
10/20 hit at 38
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm donk is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 38
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 64.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Neutral
What to watch · Stays under with 37 kills or fewer: below 0.86 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
34.93
Raw edge
-3.1
Cons. hit
54.4%
EV+
-5.8%
Rating
3.9/10
Exp. rounds
44.2
Line
38
Verdict
Neutral
Plain model
54.4%
0 →
Learned
54.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 36-40
All players · Kills
80%5 picks
This player
100%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 65% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 6% (under 22%) · 44.2 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 65% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/10 at this line · projection 0.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 34.1 kills vs line 38.0 (2/10 over). KPR 0.83, HS 65%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 34.1 against a 38.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 34.93 vs line 38 → -3.07 (-8.1%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 44.2 rounds · 2-0 56.3% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
18.75
HS/Map
12.28
K/D
1.28
KPR
0.83
ADR
86.6
KAST
71.6%
HS%
65.5%
Multi-kill
23.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)16.9 · KPR 0.792 · 21.5r
Map 2 (Mirage)18.1 · KPR 0.804 · 22.7r
Required KPR to clear0.86
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.28
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.00%
Final projected kills34.93
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 38. Model: 68.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.9%
~29 kills · 37r92.5%
Normal43.3%
~36 kills · 46r61.2%
Close maps25.2%
~37 kills · 47r52%
Overtime5.6%
~42 kills · 53r24.8%
Match context
Oct 26, 9:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 64.5%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 65% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
21.5r
-1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
22.7r
Total
44.2r
2-0 sweep56.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 2 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 38 (Under) · avg 34.1 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
38
Nearby lines
| 36 Under | 45.4% | below BE |
| 37 Under | 51% | below BE |
| 38 Under | 54.4% | OFFERED |
| 39 Under | 58.9% | |
| 40 Under | 60.9% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 38
Line movement
first 38→38no change
- First seen38Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.81
HS%
61.7%
K/D
1.15
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
17.7
KPR
0.83
HS%
62.1%
K/D
1.23
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
19.4
KPR
0.87
HS%
68.4%
K/D
1.3
Cache
7 maps
Kills
19.7
KPR
0.95
HS%
69.6%
K/D
1.41
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.9
HS%
63.2%
K/D
1.3
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
22.7
KPR
0.91
HS%
70.6%
K/D
1.48
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | TYLOO | 22 Mirage 13-5 | 14 Anubis 13-3 | 36 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | BetBoom | 19 Anubis 13-10 | 9 Ancient 3-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 10 Mirage 9-13 | 18 Anubis 6-13 | 28 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 14 Dust2 7-13 | 19 Mirage 13-5 | 33 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 23 Anubis 13-10 | 38 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 20 Dust2 13-6 | 21 Cache 13-10 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 14 Cache 5-13 | 15 Anubis 9-13 | 29 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 21 Mirage 11-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 21 Ancient 11-13 | 14 Dust2 13-6 | 35 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 21 Dust2 11-13 | 26 Nuke 13-11 | 47 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 14 Dust2 13-8 | 19 Mirage 11-13 | 33 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 15 Nuke 13-8 | 19 Ancient 13-11 | 34 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 25 Ancient 13-10 | 14 Cache 13-5 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 21 Cache 13-9 | 31 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 24 Ancient 13-8 | 24 Cache 13-7 | 48 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 22 Cache 10-13 | 25 Anubis 16-13 | 47 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 25 Dust2 13-7 | 19 Ancient 13-9 | 44 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 22 Anubis 13-11 | 27 Nuke 14-16 | 49 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 27 Dust2 13-9 | 18 Mirage 13-9 | 45 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 22 Cache 9-13 | 17 Dust2 13-10 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ |
