KillsBetter playRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.12
Hit
51%
EV+
-11.7%
Edge
+0.6
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.66
Hit
50.3%
EV+
-12.8%
Edge
+0.2
L10
40%
#159Ranked 159 of 277 on the board

Rifler
jakekeS
ex-RUSTEC vs FORZE Reload
RISK · OVER 14.5
BEST OVER · UD 13.5PP14.5UD13.5
▼ L5 14.0 · L20 15.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.22
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
0/1 hit · avg 10 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-16 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Ancient 6-13 · Dust2 5-13 · L
10
Under 14.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
15.6
10/20 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm jakekeS is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~27 kills at 55% HS): 0.587 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72%) or blowout (19.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.66
Raw edge
+0.2
Cons. hit
50.3%
EV+
-12.8%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.9
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.3%
-8.7 →
Learned
41.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
61.7%261 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.95) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.0 headshots vs line 14.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.58, HS 55%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 13.0 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.66 vs line 14.5 → +0.16 (1.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44.9 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.12
HS/Map
7.78
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.58
ADR
66.7
KAST
72.4%
HS%
55%
Multi-kill
14.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)6.7 · KPR 0.554 · 21.9r
Map 2 (Nuke)8.3 · KPR 0.656 · 23r
Required KPR to clear0.587
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.22
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.17%
Final projected kills27.18
× realistic HS% (55%)14.66
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-2.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 51.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps19.7%
~12 HS · 38r26.1%
Normal49.5%
~14 HS · 44r46%
Close maps14.1%
~16 HS · 48r59.9%
Overtime16.7%
~18 HS · 54r76.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 44% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
21.9r
-5% KPR here
M2 Nuke
23r
+12% KPR here
Total
44.9r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)19.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 13.0 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 61.2% | |
| 13.5 Over | 57.4% | below BE |
| 14.5 Over | 50.3% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 44.7% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 37.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- First seen14.5Oct 25, 02:22 AM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.55
HS%
52.5%
K/D
0.85
Nuke
9 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.68
HS%
58.3%
K/D
1.07
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
56.3%
K/D
0.91
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.63
HS%
51.4%
K/D
0.99
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
58.7%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.48
HS%
47.4%
K/D
0.7
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Spirit Academy | 5 Mirage 5-13 | 7 Nuke 13-16 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-23 | ex-RUSTEC | 2 Dust2 5-13 | 8 Nuke 13-6 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 11 Nuke 13-11 | 5 Ancient 13-10 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-17 | Sökerorg | 12 Mirage 13-11 | 2 Dust2 13-9 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Honvéd | 11 Inferno 13-10 | 7 Mirage 16-14 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | FORZE Reload | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 4 Dust2 5-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | UPGRADE | 4 Dust2 9-13 | 4 Anubis 7-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | mellren | 4 Dust2 13-7 | 2 Ancient 6-13 | 6 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Fortress | 9 Ancient 13-2 | 9 Mirage 13-2 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Fire Flux | 7 Inferno 8-13 | 11 Nuke 9-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Fortress | 16 Ancient 13-10 | 6 Mirage 13-5 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Iberian Soul | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 19 Mirage 17-19 | 27 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | Butterfly | 5 Dust2 9-13 | 12 Inferno 13-10 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | ex-RUSTEC | 4 Mirage 9-13 | 10 Dust2 13-9 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-30 | ex-RUSTEC | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 12 Nuke 16-14 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | ex-RUSTEC | 14 Dust2 14-16 | 0 Ancient 5-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-22 | Leo | 14 Nuke 13-10 | 12 Dust2 13-10 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | ex-RUSTEC | 8 Nuke 13-11 | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 9 Mirage 16-19 | 9 Anubis 13-11 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | PCIFIC | 5 Nuke 13-8 | 5 Anubis 19-16 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | OT |








































































































































































