HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.82
Hit
49.8%
EV+
-13.7%
Edge
+0.3
L10
60%
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#173Ranked 173 of 277 on the board

Rifler
rdnzao
DENDELE vs Legacy
RISK · OVER 15.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP15.5UD15.5SL15.5
≈ L5 16.8 · L20 16.6Risk · Edge +0.3 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 15.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
56%
10/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.14
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.9
7/13 hit at 15.5
Online
15.6
3/5 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm rdnzao is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 27.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~27 kills at 60.1% HS): 0.637 KPR over ~41 rounds. His Kills line is 25.5: backing Kills Over needs ~1 fewer kill, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (57.5%) or blowout (23.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.82
Raw edge
+0.3
Cons. hit
49.8%
EV+
-13.7%
Rating
1.1/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
15.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.8%
+8.7 →
Learned
58.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%263 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout loss risk — team only 28% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.6% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 57% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.4) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.9 headshots vs line 15.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 60%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.9 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.82 vs line 15.5 → +0.32 (2.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 57.5% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
13.78
HS/Map
8.28
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.67
ADR
77.2
KAST
72.5%
HS%
60.1%
Multi-kill
16.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.9 · KPR 0.62 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Cache)7.5 · KPR 0.655 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.637
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.79
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.63%
Final projected kills25.63
× realistic HS% (60.1%)15.82
Legacy gives up (79 series)-1.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15.5. Model: 54.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.8%
~13 HS · 34r26.6%
Normal51.7%
~16 HS · 41r52.7%
Close maps13.5%
~17 HS · 43r61.8%
Overtime11%
~19 HS · 49r79.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 27.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 28% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
-2% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.1r
+4% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep57.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)24.5%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Over) · avg 16.9 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Over | 64.2% | |
| 14.5 Over | 61.1% | |
| 15.5 Over | 49.8% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Over | 40.4% | below BE |
| 17.5 Over | 29.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→15.5no change
- First seen15.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.66
HS%
59.7%
K/D
0.99
Cache
8 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.71
HS%
67.6%
K/D
0.97
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.91
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.61
HS%
51.8%
K/D
0.88
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.57
HS%
56.9%
K/D
0.78
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
66%
K/D
1.13
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FURIA | 10 Ancient 8-13 | 5 Inferno 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 9 Mirage 13-4 | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 8 Mirage 13-16 | 9 Cache 3-13 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 4 Inferno 13-7 | 12 Anubis 9-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 6 Mirage 13-11 | 5 Nuke 10-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Ancient 16-13 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 3 Ancient 13-7 | 12 Cache 13-7 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 10 Mirage 8-13 | 12 Cache 13-6 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 8 Ancient 11-13 | 9 Cache 13-3 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 10 Cache 7-13 | 15 Mirage 12-16 | 25 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 7 Ancient 8-13 | 4 Cache 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 12 Inferno 14-16 | 10 Cache 13-9 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 9 Inferno 13-10 | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 6 Nuke 13-0 | 9 Anubis 13-3 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 3 Nuke 2-13 | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 6 Anubis 13-6 | 3 Mirage 6-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | paiN | 9 Cache 13-11 | 9 Nuke 13-7 | 18 | W | Over ✓ |








































































































































































