KillsRisk
Line
28
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.77
Hit
51.7%
EV+
-10.5%
Edge
-3.2
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.16
Hit
54.7%
EV+
-5.3%
Edge
-1.3
L10
50%
Rifler
koala
DENDELE vs G2
RISK · UNDER 14.5
BEST UNDER · PP 14.5PP14.5UD13.5
▼ L5 13.6 · L20 15.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 45% hit
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
56%
10/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.12
Previous meeting · vs G2
No meeting with G2 in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.6
6/14 hit at 14.5
Online
12.3
4/4 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm koala is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 24.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~28 kills at 53.1% HS): below 0.65 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (13.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.16
Raw edge
-1.3
Cons. hit
54.7%
EV+
-5.3%
Rating
3/10
Exp. rounds
42
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.7%
0 →
Learned
54.7%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
40.8%377 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 55.6% at this line
Game script fits · OT 13% (under 22%) · 42.0 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 26% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 3.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.4 headshots vs line 14.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 53%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.4 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.16 vs line 14.5 → -1.34 (-9.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
- • Expected 42 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 13.4%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
14.69
HS/Map
7.81
K/D
1.06
KPR
0.68
ADR
72.9
KAST
72.6%
HS%
53.1%
Multi-kill
16.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.1 · KPR 0.588 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Cache)6.1 · KPR 0.591 · 19.3r
Required KPR to clear0.65
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.77
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.02%
Final projected kills24.77
× realistic HS% (53.1%)13.16
G2 gives up (86 series)-1.6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 63.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.1%
~11 HS · 35r79.2%
Normal47.8%
~13 HS · 42r64.5%
Close maps15.7%
~14 HS · 45r56.8%
Overtime13.4%
~16 HS · 51r42.4%
Match context
Oct 26, 12:00 PM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 25.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 23 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 26% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Mirage
22.7r
-7% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.3r
-7% KPR here
Total
42r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime13.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 36 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 16.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 41.9% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 46.5% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 54.7% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 58.1% | |
| 16.5 Under | 60.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- First seen14.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.61
HS%
49.7%
K/D
1.07
Cache
8 maps
Kills
11.9
KPR
0.61
HS%
52.6%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
21.2
KPR
0.88
HS%
52.8%
K/D
1.39
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.83
HS%
51.6%
K/D
1.23
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.58
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.88
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.55
HS%
56.8%
K/D
0.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Legacy | 4 Cache 9-13 | 10 Mirage 17-19 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-24 | FURIA | 6 Ancient 8-13 | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 3 Mirage 13-4 | 6 Nuke 8-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 8 Mirage 13-8 | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 7 Mirage 13-16 | 3 Cache 3-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 17 Inferno 13-7 | 8 Anubis 9-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 11 Mirage 13-11 | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 8 Mirage 13-9 | 14 Ancient 16-13 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 11 Ancient 13-7 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 4 Cache 13-6 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 7 Ancient 11-13 | 7 Cache 13-3 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 8 Cache 7-13 | 4 Mirage 12-16 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 11 Ancient 8-13 | 8 Cache 7-13 | 19 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 11 Inferno 14-16 | 9 Cache 13-9 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 7 Inferno 13-10 | 11 Anubis 13-10 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 9 Nuke 13-0 | 2 Anubis 13-3 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 5 Nuke 2-13 | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 4 Anubis 13-6 | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ |
